New solutions for assessing insolvency risk in comercial organizations
Keywords:
risk management, bankruptcy risk, business risks, financial indicators, solvency, model, forecast, range, variable.
Abstract
In the context of continuous crises that have occurred in the last decade, effective solutions to reduce risks and introduce effective controls into the financial management process in commercial organizations are extremely important. In order to give a new impetus to sustainable economic growth, it is necessary to prioritize the implementation of large-scale reforms, the difficult fiscal situation in a large number of countries, the problems associated with a decrease in the solvency of commercial organizations in the real sector of the economy also require a comprehensive regulatory solution. The main purpose of this article is to offer solutions for controlling financial risks, in particular, for predicting the risk of insolvency, in the context of new ideas of financial management. Alternative methods for assessing the financial condition of commercial organizations, which also include the assessment of solvency, are based on more complex calculations, algorithms and the principle of joint application of a number of methods. From this point of view, a number of researchers in modern conditions prefer cluster analysis. A new approach to assessing and predicting insolvency risks, proposed as a scientific innovation, provides an opportunity to implement new progressive ideas of financial management in commercial organizations.
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References
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Zaitseva, O.P. (1998). Anti-crisis management in a Russian company. Aval Siberian Financial School, 11, S. 66-73.
Altman, E.I. (1968). Financial Ratios, Discriminant Analysis and the Prediction of Corporate Bankruptcy. Journal of Finance, 23(4), pp. 189-209.
Araz, O. M., Choi, T. M., Olson, D. L., & Salman, F. S. (2020). Role of analytics for operational risk management in the era of big data. Decision Sciences, 51(6), 1320–1346. https://doi.org/10.1111/deci.12451
Ashley, M. (2020). Risk heat maps have failed us... now what? Linkedin. https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/risk-heat-maps-have-failed-us-now-what-mike-ashley/
Bestens, D. E., van der Berth, V. M., & Wood, D. (1997). Wood. Neural networks and financial markets: decision making in trading operations. Moscow: TVP, 236 p.
Beaver, W.H. (1966) Financial Ratios as Predictors of Failure/Empirical Research in Accounting Selected Studies. Journal of Accounting Researchruen, 4, pp. 71-111.
Begley, J., Ming, J., & Watts, S. (1996) Bankruptcy Classification Errors in the 1980s: An Empirical Analysis of Altman’s and Ohlson’s Models. Review of Accounting Studies, pp. 25-38.
Borovsky, V., Rakovskaya, E. E., & Bisikalo, A. L. (2018). Discriminant analysis of technical short texts, Vestn. Astrakhan. state tech. university Ser. control, computing tech. inform., 2, pp. 53–60.
Dahiyat, A. A., Weshah, S. R., & Aldahiyat, M. (2021). Liquidity and Solvency Management and its Impact on Financial Performance: Empirical Evidence from Jordan. Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business, 8(5), pp. 135-141.
Dantsova, L.V. (2015) Analysis of financial statements: textbook. M.: Business and Service, p. 147. [In Russian]
Goldman, K.D., & Schmalz, K.J. (2004). The Matrix Method of literature reviews. Health Promot Pract, 5(1), 5-7. doi: 10.1177/1524839903258885
Korechkov, Yu. V., & Tselishchev, P. B. (2017). Features of cryptocurrency exchanges and cryptocurrency volatility. Economics and society, 35, pp.760–761. [In Russian]
Kudryavtsev, D.S. (2015). Methods of analysis and assessment of the risk of insolvency of small businesses (dissertation for the degree of candidate of economic sciences). Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, Russian, p. 64.
Luchinin, A.S., & Lyanguzov, A.V. A (2022) logistic regression-based model to predict ICU mortality: problems and solutions. Quality Clinical Practice, 2, 13-20. (In Russian.) https://doi.org/10.37489/2588-0519-2022-2-13-20
Mackendrick, D. (2016). Six Reasons to Love Blockchain. M.: PCWeek, 17.05. - Access mode: https://www.itweek.ru/idea/article/detail.php?ID=185642¶m=blk
Nikonov, M. V. (2021). Multiple linear regression in the assessment of the UK currency market / M. V. Nikonov. Text: direct. Young scientist, 392(50), S. 7-10. URL: https://moluch.ru/archive/392/86492/ (date of access: 12/12/2022).
Ohlson, J. (1980). Financial Ratios and the Probabilistic Prediction of Bankruptcy. Journal of Accounting Research, 6, pp. 12-45.
Savitskaya, G.V. (2015). Comprehensive analysis of the economic activity of the enterprise: textbook. M.: INFRA-M, p. 548. [In Russian]
Skripichnikov, D.V. (2009). Rehabilitation procedures used in bankruptcy cases in foreign countries and ways to improve them in the Russian Federation. M.: Bridges and cultures, 208 p. 7–135. [In Russian]
Smirnov, P.A. (2015). Analysis of the solvency of the enterprise. European research, 5(4), p. 15–16. [In Russian]
Springate, G. L. V. (1978). Predicting the Possibility of Failure in a Canadian Firm. Unpublished M.B.A. Research Project, Simon Fraser University, January. 200 p.
Tebekin, A.V. (2019). To the question of the formation of the concept of management in the 2030s. Bulletin of the Moscow Finance and Law Academy, 2, p. 168-176. [In Russian]
Vaganova, O., Ilyashenko, L., Smirnova, Z., Bystrova, N., & Kaznacheeva, S. (2019). Students’ creative abilities development in higher educational institution. Amazonia Investiga, 8(22), 701-710. Retrieved from https://amazoniainvestiga.info/index.php/amazonia/article/view/822
Van Horne, J.C. (1996) Fundamentals of Financial Management. Moscow: Finance and Statistics Public., 800 p.
Van Staveren, M.T. (2009). Design propositions for implementing risk management in organizations. (Doctoral dissertation), University of Twente, Groningen, The Netherlands.
Voiko, A.V. (2019). Modeling the probability of bankruptcy of construction companies in the Russian Federation. Finance: theory and practice. Finance: Theory and Practice, 23(5), p. 62-74. https://doi.org/10.26794/2587-5671-2019-23-5-62-74
Yankovskaya, V.V., Mustafin, T.A., Endovitsky, D.A., & Krivosheev, A.V. (2022). Corporate Social Responsibility as an Alternative Approach to Financial Risk Management: Advantages for Sustainable Development, Risks, 10(5), 106.
Zaitseva, O.P. (1998). Anti-crisis management in a Russian company. Aval Siberian Financial School, 11, S. 66-73.
Published
2022-11-08
How to Cite
Baboyan, K. (2022). New solutions for assessing insolvency risk in comercial organizations. Amazonia Investiga, 11(57), 189-197. https://doi.org/10.34069/AI/2022.57.09.20
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