Methodological bases for assessing socio-demographic and migration consequences of man-made disasters

Keywords: technogenic disaster, consequences of disasters, ecological migration, socio-demographic consequences.


The purpose of the research is to develop methodological bases and principles for assessing the socio-demographic (including migration) consequences of man-made disasters. A method of rapid assessment of possible outgoing migration flows that may occur in the event of a man-made emergency of various scales is proposed. The initial data for this method are quantitative statistical register data on housing stock and population, as well as operational data on the scale of destruction obtained using contactless methods of information collection. The author summarizes the legal acts regulating the work on prevention and elimination of consequences of man-made and other emergencies in Russia, as well as establishing the principles for assessing their consequences. The author proposes a rearrangement of the set of consequences of man-made disasters, including three main directions of the impact of emergency situations on various spheres: demographic (including damage to life and health, as well as the migration component), socio-economic, and natural and environmental. Indicators reflecting the consequences of the disaster have been developed for each of the


Download data is not yet available.

Author Biographies

Anastasia S. Maksimova, Russian Academy of Sciences (ISPI FNISC RAS) Moscow, Russia.

Candidate of economic Sciences, senior research fellow at the Center for social demography of the Institute for socio-political research – a separate division of the Federal research sociological center of the Russian Academy of Sciences (ISPI FNISC RAS) Moscow, Russia.

Sergey V. Ryazantsev, Institute of Socio-Political Research FCTAS RAS, Moscow, Russia.

Corresponding Member of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Dr. Sci. (Econ.), Prof., Director of Institute of Socio-Political Research FCTAS RAS, Moscow, Russia.

Artem S. Lukyanets, Institute of Socio-Political Research FCTAS RAS, Moscow, Russia.

Candidate of economic Sciences, Leading researcher, Center for Social Demography, Institute of Socio-Political Research FCTAS RAS, Moscow, Russia.

Evgeniya M. Moiseeva, Institute of Socio-Political Research FCTAS RAS, Moscow, Russia.

Junior researcher, Center for Social Demography, Institute of Socio-Political Research FCTAS RAS, Moscow, Russia.


Abdullin, A. G. (2006). Socio-psychological consequences of large- scale man-made disasters in the remote period (on the example of the Ural region). Diss. Doctor of psychology. Magnitogorsk.

Arbeláez-Campillo, D., & Rojas-Bahamon, M. (2020). Pandemics in globalization times.Amazonia Investiga, 9(27), 3-4.

Avdot'in V. P., Dzibov M. M., Samsonov K. P. (2012). Assessment of damage from natural and man- made emergencies. Monograph; EMERCOM of Russia. Moscow: fsbi vniii GOCHS (Federal center), 468 p.

Bagrova L. A., Bokov V. A., Mazinov A. S.-A. (2012). Dangerous man- made disasters in the energy sector as environmental risk factors. Scientific notes of the Tauride national University. V. I. Vernadsky A Series Of "Geography". Volume 25 (64). #2. Pp. 9-19.

Budaeva D. R., Stankevich V. A. (2011). Socio-economic consequences of the latest and man- made disaster in Japan. Bulletin of the regional Russian geographical society in the Republic of North Ossetia-Alania. #14. P. 12-14.

Cherkasova, T., Saad Masood Butt, Karabulatova, I., Mkrtumova, I., Zabirova, G. Kim, L. (2019). Problems of the formation of communication skills in children with special needs. Advances in Social Science, Education and Humanities Research, volume 374. International Conference on Man-Power-Law-Governance: Interdisciplinary Approaches (MPLG-IA 2019), Atlantic Press,

Chernogor, L. F. (2006). Environmental consequences of mass chemical explosions in a man- made disaster. Geoecology. Engineering Geology, hydrogeology, Geocryology. No. 6. Pp. 522-535

Degtyarev V. V. (2005) Reducing the risk and reducing the consequences of natural and man- made disasters. News of higher educational institutions. Construction. No. 4 (556). Pp. 91-95.

Dolenina O. E., Ryabova E. V. (2013). Economic consequences of environmental and man-made disasters the example of Europe. Bulletin of Tambov University. Series:Natural and technical Sciences. Volume 18. #2. Pp. 587-591.

EM-DAT. The international disaster database. Retrieved 02.02.2020, from:

Grishin A.M., Dolgov A. A., Zima V. P., Kataeva L. Yu., Subbotin A. N., Tsvyk R. Sh., Tsymbalyuk A. F (2019). Mathematical modeling of some environmental consequences of natural and man- made disasters. Research report No. 96-01-00011 (Russian Foundation for basic research).

Goldobina L. A., Gusev V. P., Orlov P. S. (2009). Innovative methods to reduce the risk and reduce the consequences of man-made disasters in the operation of underground pipelines. Innovations. #5. Pp.119-121

Ismagilov I.F. (2010) Man- made disasters are a Threat to economic, energy, National security and the functioning of the state. Bulletin of Kazan technological University, No. 5, PP.: 184 – 189. Retrieved March 20, 2020 from:

Kobernichenko V. G., Sovetkin V. L., Tyagunov G. V., Yaroshenko Yu. G. (2003). Information and analytical system for monitoring potentially dangerous objects. Notes of the Mining Institute. Vol. 154, pp. 76-78.

Kuzin S. G., Patlan V. A., Sukhanov S. G. (2005). Organization of work of the forensic medical service in the elimination of consequences of man -made disasters and sudden emergencies. Human ecology. #3. Pp. 22-25.

Lukyanets, A. S., Ryazantsev, S. V., Maksimova, A. S., Moiseeva, E. M., Manshin, R. V. (2019) Theoretical, methodological and statistical problems of studying environmental migration. Amazonia Investiga. Vol. 8. No. 19. P. 227-236.

Makhnev M. V. (2008). Tactics of the medical service of the armed forces in the aftermath of natural and man- made disasters. Military thought. #3. From 49-60.

Menshikov V. V., Shvyryaev A. A. (2003). Dangerous chemical objects and technogenic risk: Textbook. - M.: publishing house Chemistry, 254 s.

Melnikov P. A., Sobolev A. A. (2011). Reducing the risk and consequences of man- made disasters. Tolyatti: Cassandra, 162 p.

Migliorini, M., Hagen, J., Mihaljević, J., Mysiak, J., Rossi, J., Siegmund, A., Meliksetian, K. and Guha Sapir, D. (2019). "Data interoperability for disaster risk reduction in Europe", Disaster Prevention and Management, Vol. 28 No. 6, pp. 796-808.

Minutes of the meeting of the Government Commission on emergency prevention and response and fire safety No. 7 dated December 13, 2019. Retrieved on 02.02.2020, from:

Netreba A.V., Poyarkov V. A. (2004). Forecasting the scale of consequences of man-made disasters and planning measures to eliminate them using GIS technologies. Complex security of Russia-research, management, experience. Moscow: all- Russian research Institute for civil defense and emergency situations of the EMERCOM of Russia. Pp. 147-149.

Orlov P. S., Goldobina L. A. (2010). Reducing the consequences of man-made disasters in the operation of underground pipelines by implementing methods for determining the places of intergranular corrosion. Technical and technological problems of the service. No. 4(14). pp. 18-25.

Porfiriev B. N., Makarova E. A. (2014). Natural and man- made disasters: consequences for the population and economy.Economics and management. No. 4 (102). Pp. 4-15.

Resolution of the Government of the Russian Federation of may 21, 2007 N 304 "On classification of natural and man- made emergencies". The GARANT system. Retrieved on 02.02.2020, from,

Resolution of the Council of Ministers of the Republic of Crimea dated March 31, 2015 No. 150 " on approval of the Regulations on the data Bank of potentially dangerous objects located on the territory of the Republic of Crimea". Retrieved on 15 December 2019, from:

Sukhoruchenko, V. S. (2010). Man- made disasters and man- made security. Protection and security. No. 3(54). Pp. 18-21

"Unified interdepartmental methodology for assessing damage from man- made, natural and terrorist emergencies, as well as classification and accounting of emergency situations " (approved by the Ministry of emergency situations of the Russian Federation). EMERCOM of Russia 01.12.2004).
How to Cite
Maksimova, A., Ryazantsev, S., Lukyanets, A., & Moiseeva, E. (2020). Methodological bases for assessing socio-demographic and migration consequences of man-made disasters. Amazonia Investiga, 9(29), 213-223.