Fiscal risk management in Ukraine under new challenges
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.34069/AI/2023.68.08.12Keywords:
fiscal risks, risk management, public finance, budget, war.Abstract
This article examines fiscal risks and their management in Ukraine and abroad, drawing on international best practices. The main aim is to analyze global risks in the short and long term and evaluate how public finances have been managed in Ukraine and other countries during economic crises, while suggesting areas for improvement. The study utilized various scientific methods, including the structural-functional method to uncover risk management mechanisms within public finance systems and the comparative method to contrast key indicators of Ukraine's public finance system with those of other nations. Key findings include the identification of primary tools used nationally and internationally to mitigate the impact of fiscal shocks during crises. Budgetary practices from different countries were also examined, emphasizing fiscal rules, social expenditure allocation, and incentives for innovation and investment. The research highlights how global challenges and economic crises have led countries to adopt different approaches based on their economic development and risk management integration into fiscal processes. Recommendations are provided to enhance fiscal risk management measures in Ukraine, particularly in the ongoing wartime context. In conclusion, this article underscores the importance of effective fiscal risk management and offers specific suggestions to strengthen fiscal risk management practices in Ukraine, considering current circumstances and unforeseen challenges.
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References
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Blishchuk, K. (2018). New approaches in management of public finances. Public Administration Efficiency, 50. https://doi.org/10.33990/2070-4011.50.2017.150641
Bohdan, T. (2022). War and public finances: how much money is needed for restoration and where to get it. Economic Truth. URL: https://www.epravda.com.ua/columns/2022/11/3/693382/
Bohdan, T. (2023). New fiscal rules in the EU: promising tasks for Ukraine. Economic Truth. URL: https://www.epravda.com.ua
Cassard, M., & Folkerts-Landau, D. (1997). Risk Management of Sovereign Assets and Liabilities (December 1997). IMF Working Paper No. 97/166, SSRN. Available at https://ssrn.com/abstract=883049
Clarification for the communities (n.d.). Evaluation of the effectiveness of budget programs of the local budget during martial law. URL: https://decentralization.gov.ua/news/16084
Committee (n.d.). Committee of Sponsoring Organizations of the Treadway Commission. https://www.coso.org/
Danylenko, A., & Zymovets, V. (2015). Monitoring of factors that create risks to the stability of public finances of Ukraine: scientific and analytical materials. [File PDF]. URL: https://cutt.ly/lwmrKk5u
Danylyshyn, B. (2022). Budget 2023: realism and risks. Espresso. URL: https://espreso.tv/byudzhet-2023-realistichnist-ta-riziki
Drozd, I., Pysmenna, M., & Pohribna, N. (2021). Implementation of the principle of responsibility in the system of monetary control of public procurement. Scientific Bulletin of Polissya, 2(14), 78-82. URL: https://doi.org/10.25140/2410-9576-2018-2-2(14)-78-8
Everaert, G., Fouad, M., Martin, E., & Velloso, R. (2009). Disclosing fiscal risks in the post-crisis world. International Monetary Fund. URL: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781455241125.004
Finap Software Solutions (2022). BEPS: Ukraine is on the way to the introduction of international automatic exchange of reports by country. URL: https://acortar.link/8So91v
Fiscal risks (2008). Fiscal risks: Sources, Disclosure, and Management / Fiscal Affairs Department, IMF. URL: https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/dp/2009/dp0901.pdf
Hasanov, S. (2017). Fiscal Risks and Fiscal Targeting in the Public Financial Management System in Conditions of Institutional Uncertainty. Scientific works of Scientific Research Financial Institute, 2, pp. 5-24 (In Ukrainian)
Hrechanichenko, O. (2018). Risk-based management as a mechanism for public management of public finances in Ukraine. Public administration: improvement and development, 5. URL: http://www.dy.nayka.com.ua/?op=1&z=1238
Ivanytska, O. M., & Koshchuk, T. M. (2019). Analysis of approaches to fiscal risk management in the context of world experience. Finance of Ukraine, 9.
Information on fiscal risks (2023). Information on fiscal risks (including contingent liabilities and quasi-fiscal operations) and their impact on the state budget indicators in 2023. URL: https://mof.gov.ua/uk/download/page/3993
Iefymenko, T. I., Yerokhin, S. A., & Bohdan, T. P. (Eds.). (2014). The debt sustainability of public finances. Kyiv: DNNU “Akademiia finansovoho upravlinnia”.
International Monetary Fund. (2017). Data. Fiscal Rules Dataset. URL: https://acortar.link/ex0sjD
Kozoriz, L. O. (2020). ?nternational experience in minimizing fiscal risks in the context of macroeconomic shocks. Investments: practice and experience, 24, pp. 72-81. DOI: 10.32702/2306-6814.2020.24.72
Lunina, I. (2012). Public finance risks and ways to minimize them. Finance of Ukraine, 2, 4–15. (In Ukrainian)
Liutyi, I., & Kravchenko, M. (2014). The global economic crisis: threats and risks in the functioning of the public finance system of Ukraine. Economy and the state, 7, 24-27
Mackenzie, G., & Stella, P. (1996). Quasi-Fiscal Operations of Public Financial Institutions. IMF Occasional Paper 142.
Managing Fiscal Risks (2020). Case studies of Australia, Finland, the Netherlands, New Zealand and the United Kingdom. OECD. URL: https://acortar.link/krBbVa
Methodology (2019). Methodology for assessing fiscal risks: approved. Resolution of the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine dated April 24, 2019 No. 351.URL: https://www.kmu.gov.ua/ua/npas/pro-zatverdhrizikiv
Miedviedkova, N. (2016). Directions for improvement of state financial control in Ukraine. Baltic Journal of Economic Studies, 2(2), 105-110. URL: https://doi.org/10.30525/2256-0742/2016-2-2-105-110
Ministry of Finance of Ukraine (2021). Information on fiscal risks and their impact on state budget indicators in 2021.URL: https://mof.gov.ua
OECD (2020). Best Practices for Managing Fiscal Risks. URL: https://acortar.link/1Hn813
Order No. 92-r. "On approval of the Concept for the creation of an integrated information and analytical system" Transparent Budget " Order of the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine dated February 11, 2016.
Open Budget Survey. (2021). Open Budget Survey 2021: Ukraine. URL: https://acortar.link/COdbQg
Persson, T., & Tabellini, G. (1996). Federal Fiscal Constitutions: Risk Sharing and Redistribution. Journal of Political Economy, 104(5), 979-1009
RBC (n.d.). Bankers called the greatest risks for the financial sector of Ukraine. URL: https://acortar.link/fOiv6P
Riabushka, L. B., Kubakh, T. H., & Pavlenko, I. M. (2021). Modern approaches to managing fiscal risks: methodology and practice. Business Inform, 5, 339-348. https://doi.org/10.32983/2222-4459-2021-5-339-348
Rozhko, O. (2016). The formation of new public finance management system within the framework of the modern theory of public finance. Innovative Solutions in modern science, 9(9), 107–116.
Rozhko, O., Tkachenko, N., & Kovalenko, Yu. (2021). Scientific and methodological approach to budget strategizing through the application of the program-target method. Financial and Credit Activity Problems of Theory and Practice, 2(33), 335-344. URL: https://doi.org/10.18371/fcaptp.v2i33.206974
Varnalii, Z., Onishchenko, S., & Masliy, A. (2016). Threat prevention mechanisms of Ukraine’s economic security. Economic Annals-??I, 159(5–6), 20-24. URL: https://doi.org/10.21003/ea.V159-04
WEF (2022). World Economic Forum. The Global Risks. Report 2022. 17th Edition. Switzerland, Geneva: WEF, 2022. 117 ?. https://acortar.link/YwyQlY
WEF (2023). World Economic Forum. The Global Risks. Report 2023. 18th Edition. Switzerland, Geneva: WEF, 98 ? https://acortar.link/krMNOD
World Bank (n.d.). World Economic Outlook. URL. https://acortar.link/vyZzmU
Published
2023-08-30
How to Cite
Tretiak, D., Sizov, A., Miedviedkova, N., Murovana, T., & Karpych, A. (2023). Fiscal risk management in Ukraine under new challenges. Amazonia Investiga, 12(68), 126–140. https://doi.org/10.34069/AI/2023.68.08.12
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