Predicting development based on a model of reflexive connections

Tetyana Zhovkovska; Oleksii Bezchasnyi; Olena Usykova; Kostyantyn Rybachuk; Khrystyna Dzhuryk

doi:10.34069/AI/2021.42.06.11

Tetyana Zhovkovska Western Ukrainian National University, Ukraine. https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3675-3330
Oleksii Bezchasnyi V.I. Vernadsky Taurida National University, Ukraine. https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2663-4688
Olena Usykova Mykolayiv National Agrarian University, Ukraine. https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6734-5757
Kostyantyn Rybachuk State Service for Education Quality of Ukraine, Kyiv, Ukraine. https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8904-2682
Khrystyna Dzhuryk Lviv Polytechnic National University, Ukraine. https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7100-8128

DOI: https://doi.org/10.34069/AI/2021.42.06.11

Keywords: development, reflexive, model, connections, prediction.

Abstract

The purpose of the article is to develop an approach to quality forecasting of industrial enterprises. This article intends to understand how to take into account in predicting relationship, behavior and interaction of economic agents that affect the efficiency of the enterprise.

The result of the work is a reflexive approach to forecasting the development of an industrial enterprise, which focuses on prediction considering the complex interaction of economic agents in industrial activities as subjects of reflection with appropriate ranks. The approach based on the proposed model, which taking into account the reflective relationships between the industrial enterprise system and the components of the external environment, in which the industrial enterprise and other economic agents (or groups of economic agents) are considered as systems and trajectories. Depending on the trajectories of the components of the environment can be predicted development of industrial enterprises and management measures developed for correction. As components of the external environment, the trajectories of which must be taken into account when reflexively forecasting the development of an industrial enterprise are offered: the market of raw materials; groups of competitors; consumer groups; supplier groups; financial market; labor market. The model of taking into account the reflective connections between the system of the industrial enterprise and the components of the external environment is implemented in the PowerSim simulation package.

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Author Biographies

Tetyana Zhovkovska, Western Ukrainian National University, Ukraine.

Doctor of Economics Sciences, Western Ukrainian National University, Director of Chortkiv Vocational College of Economics and Entrepreneurship, Ternopil, Ukraine.

Oleksii Bezchasnyi, V.I. Vernadsky Taurida National University, Ukraine.

Doctor of Economics, Associate Professor, Associate Professor of the Department of Hospitality Industry and Sustainable Development, V.I. Vernadsky Taurida National University, Ukraine.

Olena Usykova, Mykolayiv National Agrarian University, Ukraine.

Doctor of Economics Sciences, Associate Professor of Management Department, Director of the Educational Scientific Institute of Economics and Management, Mykolayiv National Agrarian University, Ukraine.

Kostyantyn Rybachuk, State Service for Education Quality of Ukraine, Kyiv, Ukraine.

Ph.D., Candidate of Pedagogical Sciences, Associate Professor, Head, Department of Organizational and Analytical Support of the State Supervision (Control), State Service for Education Quality of Ukraine, Kyiv, Ukraine.

Khrystyna Dzhuryk, Lviv Polytechnic National University, Ukraine.

Lviv Polytechnic National University, postgraduate student of the Department of Finance, Lviv, Ukraine.

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