Assessing the functionality of models for predicting pharmaceutical companies

Danil Alekseevich Zyukin; Alexey Anatolyevich Golovin; Olga Viktorovna Pshenichnikova; Marina Nikolaevna Nadzhafova

doi:10.34069/AI/2020.28.04.30

Danil Alekseevich Zyukin Kursk State Agricultural Academy named after I.I. Ivanova, Russia. https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8118-2907
Alexey Anatolyevich Golovin Department of Economic Theory, Regional Studies and Legal Regulation of Economics, Kursk Academy of State and Municipal Service, Russia. https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4962-2022
Olga Viktorovna Pshenichnikova Department of Economics and Accounting, Kursk State University, Russia.
Marina Nikolaevna Nadzhafova Department of Economics and Management, Kursk State Medical University, Russia.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.34069/AI/2020.28.04.30

Keywords: industry, pharmaceutical industry, sanctions, economic crisis, recession, liquidity, solvency, financial stability, bankruptcy, bankruptcy forecasting models.

Abstract

The article considers the problem of the functionality of existing bankruptcy forecasting models for the pharmaceutical industry, the significance of which is due to the strategic role of this industry in ensuring drug safety in Russia. In conditions of import dependence, it is possible to increase the competitiveness of domestic enterprises by investing in it, which actualizes the task of increasing their investment attractiveness, one of the main elements of which is long-term and predictable financial stability. The study shows that today the assessment of financial stability and the likelihood of bankruptcy is possible only on the basis of generalized models of domestic and foreign authors, which in general give ineffective results. This is due to the fact that standard models do not take into account the industry specifics of the enterprises in question, and therefore are not able to reliably determine the presence or absence of a threat of insolvency. An important direction in the development of the pharmaceutical industry of the Russian Federation in the current environment is the search for effective tools for economic analysis and the development of the correct adapted methodology for predicting the probability of bankruptcy.

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Author Biographies

Danil Alekseevich Zyukin, Kursk State Agricultural Academy named after I.I. Ivanova, Russia.

Candidate of Economic sciences, Senior Researcher, Kursk State Agricultural Academy named after I.I. Ivanova, Russia.

Alexey Anatolyevich Golovin, Department of Economic Theory, Regional Studies and Legal Regulation of Economics, Kursk Academy of State and Municipal Service, Russia.

Doctor of Economic sciences, Associate Professor, Head of the Department of Economic Theory, Regional Studies and Legal Regulation of Economics, Kursk Academy of State and Municipal Service, Russia.

Olga Viktorovna Pshenichnikova, Department of Economics and Accounting, Kursk State University, Russia.

Candidate of Economic sciences, Associate Professor, Chair of Department of Economics and Accounting, Kursk State University, Russia.

Marina Nikolaevna Nadzhafova, Department of Economics and Management, Kursk State Medical University, Russia.

Senior Lecturer, Department of Economics and Management, Kursk State Medical University, Russia.

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