Modelling the Development Dynamics of Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises in Russia
Keywords:
small and medium-sized entrepreneurship (SME), economic growth, business demography, sustainable development.
Abstract
The paper explores the factors in the development of small and medium-sized entrepreneurship (SME) in Russia over the past 13 years. The purpose of the article is to identify the patterns and current trends in the dynamics of the number of SMEs. The present study carries out correlation and regression analysis of the factors using the statistical data for 2006–2018. The number of the employed and the average nominal wage are the factors that exert a positive effect on the number of small enterprises, whereas tax burden, the weighted average rate for short-term loans and the inflation rate have a negative impact. The research results allowed forecasting the development dynamics of SMEs for 2020–2024. Providing that Russia follows the basic scenario of the socio-economic development and the existing trends persist, the total number of SMEs is expected to grow to 3,636 thousand (1.37 times) by 2024.
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References
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Dellis, K., Karkalakos, S., & Kottaridi, C. (2016). Entrepreneurship targeting policies, technological growth, and unemployment. Journal of Eurasian Economic Dialogue, 1(6), 19–39.
Fattakhutdinova, D. R. (2018). The role of SME in ensuring economic sustainability. In Zolotukhin V. A. (ed.). Humanitarian knowledge. Series: Scientific horizons. Pp. 82–84.
Giriuniene, G., & Giriunas, L. (2015). Sustainable development and tax system: IT’S impact on entrepreneurship. Journal of Security and Sustainability Issues, 4(3), 233–240. https://doi.org/10.9770/jssi.2015.4.3(4)
Guseynov, T. S. (2017). Tools and methods of state support of small entrepreneurship. Journal of Economy and Entrepreneurship, 5-2(82), 449–452.
Ibragimov, T. G., & Yakunina, M. G. (2019). Trends and prospects of development of small business in Russia on the example of foreign experience. The Crimean Scientific Bulletin, 1(22), 25–32.
Ivanova, N. Yu. (1993). Small business abroad. In: Kamaev V. D. (ed.). Economy and Business. Moscow. Pp. 42–47.
Johnson, S., & Kaufmann, D. (1998). Regulatory discretion and the unofficial economy. The American Economic Review, 88, 387–392.
Karpov, V. V., Korableva, A. A., & Mozzherina, N. T. (2015). Analysis and improvement of the mechanism of state support to small and medium-sized businesses. Regional Economics: Theory and Practice, 8(383), 38–49.
Khnykina, T. S., & Fomichenko, I. A. (2014). The dynamics of small business development: Problems and prospects. Scientific Journal NRU ITMO. Series: Economics and Environmental Management, 3, 599–613.
Kiselitsa, E. P., Shilova, N. N., Liman, I. A., & Naumenko, E. E. (2018). Impact of spatial development on sustainable entrepreneurship. Entrepreneurship and Sustainability Issues, 6(2), 890–911. http://doi.org/10.9770/jesi.2018.6.2(28)
Kopeykina, N. (2018). Financial market experts forecast the Central Bank’s key rate for 2019–2024. Retrieved from http://www.1rre.ru/212602-klyuchevuyu-stavku-cb-na-2019-2024-god-sprognozirovali-eksperty-finansovogo-rynka.html
Kozma, E. S. (2018). Using an econometric model in predicting the activities of small enterprisesю Financial Management, 6, 31–37.
Kuzmin, E. A. (2017). Risk and uncertainty in concept of corporate lifecycle. Problems and Perspectives in Management, 15(1), 107–114. http://dx.doi.org/10.21511/ppm.15(1).2017.11
Kuzmin, E. A. (2018). Data on empirically estimated enterprise survival rate in Russia. Data in Brief, 16, 850–864. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.dib.2017.12.011
Lambert, T. E. (2017). Monopoly capital and entrepreneurism: Whither small business? Journal of Eurasian Economic Dialogue, 2(3), 1–12.
Litau, E. (2017). ‘Evolution of species’ in business: From mice to elephants. The question of small enterprise development. Journal of Advanced Research in Law and Economics, 8(6), 1812–1824. http://doi.org/10.14505/jarle.v8.6(28).16
Litau, E. (2018). Entrepreneurship and economic growth: A look from the perspective of cognitive economics. In ACM International Conference Proceeding Series (pp. 143–147). http://doi.org/10.1145/3271972.3271978
Maltseva, E. S., & Plakhov, A. V. (2018). Topical problems of taxation and development of small business in Russia. Business and Design Review, 1(9), 3–11.
Molchanenko, S. A. (2015). Factors in increasing the socio-economic efficiency of joint venture in a region. Modern Trends in Economy and Management: A New Approach, 31, 67–70.
Molina, J. A., Velilla, J., & Ortega, R. (2016). Entrepreneurial activity in the OECD: Pooled and cross-country evidence. Journal of Eurasian Economic Dialogue, 1(6), 1–18.
Morozko, N. I. (2018). Small business promotion factors. Economy. Tax. Law, 11(3), 64–70. https://doi.org/10.26794/1999-849X-2018-11-3-64-70
On approval of the Strategy for the Development of Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises in the Russian Federation until 2030 (together with the Plan of Events (Roadmap) for implementing the Strategy for the Development of Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises in the Russian Federation until 2030). Decree of the Government of the Russian Federation of June 2, 2016 No. 1083-r (ed. on March 30, 2018).
Ponomarev, V. A., & Petrov, M. V. (2018). Features of the development of an innovative enterprise with the support of the Innovation Support Fund. Radio Industry (Russia), 28(3), 86–91. https://doi.org/10.21778/2413-9599-2018-28-3-86-91
Ponomarev, V. A., & Petrov, M. V. (2019). Territorial interaction is the basis for the development of a small innovative enterprise and other territorial enterprises. Radio Industry (Russia), 29(1), 61–66. https://doi.org/10.21778/2413-9599-2019-29-1-61-66
Prokhodenko, O. O., & Trubetskaya, O. V. (2017). Problems of small business development. Vestnik of Young Scientists of Samara State University of Economics, 2(36), 68–73.
Raudeliuniene, J., Tvaronavičiene, M., & Dzemyda, I. (2014). Towards economic security and sustainability: Key success factors of sustainable entrepreneurship in conditions of global economy. Journal of Security and Sustainability Issues, 3(4), 71–79. https://doi.org/10.9770/jssi.2014.3.4(7)
Rosstat 2017. Retrieved from www.gks.ru.
Rosstat 2019. Key performance indicators of small enterprises (including microenterprises). Retrieved from http://www.gks.ru/free_doc/new_site/business/inst-preob/tab-mal_pr_m.htm
Ruban, D. A. (2018). Regional activity concentration of small enterprises in conditions of inflation. Bulletin of Ural Federal University. Series Economics and Management, 17(1), 52–70. https://doi.org/10.15826/vestnik.2018.17.1.003
Russia in Figures. (2016). Moscow, Rosstat.
Sibirskaya, E. V., & Oveshnikova, L. V. (2013). Methods for multicriteria and multivariate assessment of the effectiveness of infrastructure support for entrepreneurial activity. Research Bulletin of Belgorod State University. Series: Economics. Computer Science, 22(165), 55–61.
Smirnov, R. O. (2017). Issues of commercialization of innovative technologies in the Russian Federation in the field of entrepreneurial activities. Radio Industry (Russia), 3, 110–112. https://doi.org/10.21778/2413-9599-2017-3-110-112
The amount of finance poured into regions to support SMEs in 2018 will amount to 5,017 billion rubles. (2018). Retrieved from http://osspb.ru/osnews/obem_finansirovaniya_regionov_na_podderzhku_msp_v_2018_godu_sostavit_5017_mlrd_rubley
The forecast of the socio-economic development of the Russian Federation until 2024. (2018). Retrieved from http://economy.gov.ru/minec/activity/sections/macro/201801101
The main performance indicators of small enterprises (including microenterprises). Rosstat 2019. Retrieved from http://www.gks.ru/free_doc/new_site/business/inst-preob/tab-mal_pr_m.htm
The report on the results of the expert-analytical event “Analysis of the Implementation of Government Support for Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises in 2014–2017”. Bulletin of Accounts Chamber No. 9 (Sept.). Retrieved from http://www.ach.gov.ru/activities/bulleten/929/34572/
Titov B. (2018). The sector of small and medium-sized entrepreneurship: Russia and the world. Retrieved from http://stolypin.institute/wp-conten
t/uploads/2018/07/issledovanie-ier-msp-27.07.18.pdf
Trofimov, I. D. (2017). Entrepreneurship and policy dynamics: A theoretical framework. Journal of Eurasian Economic Dialogue, 2(3), 13–29.
Velilla, J. (2018). The entrepreneurial activity using gem data: Evidence for Spain (national and regional) and for Europe. Journal of Eurasian Economic Dialogue, 3(2), 18–32.
Vlasova, M. A., & Lyapina, I. R. (2015). Prediction of structural changes in business development in the Russian Federation. Economic Sciences and Humanities, 10(285), 97–102.
Zamakhina, T. (2019). Medvedev: Tax burden in Russia will not grow in the next six years. Rossiyskaya Gazeta=The Russian Newspaper, April 17. Retrieved from https://rg.ru/2019/04/17/medvedev-nalogovaia-nagruzka-v-rf-ne-budet-rasti-v-blizhajshie-shest-let.html
Zyuzina, E. D. (2019). Foreign experience of development of small business. Vector of Economy, 1(31).
Bank of Russia, 2019. Retrieved from https://www.cbr.ru/statistics/pdko/int_rat/
Baubonienė, Ž., Hahn, K. H., Puksas, A., & Malinauskienė, E. (2018). Factors influencing student entrepreneurship intentions: The case of Lithuanian and South Korean universities. Entrepreneurship and Sustainability Issues, 6(2), 854–871. http://doi.org/10.9770/jesi.2018.6.2(26)
Dellis, K., Karkalakos, S., & Kottaridi, C. (2016). Entrepreneurship targeting policies, technological growth, and unemployment. Journal of Eurasian Economic Dialogue, 1(6), 19–39.
Fattakhutdinova, D. R. (2018). The role of SME in ensuring economic sustainability. In Zolotukhin V. A. (ed.). Humanitarian knowledge. Series: Scientific horizons. Pp. 82–84.
Giriuniene, G., & Giriunas, L. (2015). Sustainable development and tax system: IT’S impact on entrepreneurship. Journal of Security and Sustainability Issues, 4(3), 233–240. https://doi.org/10.9770/jssi.2015.4.3(4)
Guseynov, T. S. (2017). Tools and methods of state support of small entrepreneurship. Journal of Economy and Entrepreneurship, 5-2(82), 449–452.
Ibragimov, T. G., & Yakunina, M. G. (2019). Trends and prospects of development of small business in Russia on the example of foreign experience. The Crimean Scientific Bulletin, 1(22), 25–32.
Ivanova, N. Yu. (1993). Small business abroad. In: Kamaev V. D. (ed.). Economy and Business. Moscow. Pp. 42–47.
Johnson, S., & Kaufmann, D. (1998). Regulatory discretion and the unofficial economy. The American Economic Review, 88, 387–392.
Karpov, V. V., Korableva, A. A., & Mozzherina, N. T. (2015). Analysis and improvement of the mechanism of state support to small and medium-sized businesses. Regional Economics: Theory and Practice, 8(383), 38–49.
Khnykina, T. S., & Fomichenko, I. A. (2014). The dynamics of small business development: Problems and prospects. Scientific Journal NRU ITMO. Series: Economics and Environmental Management, 3, 599–613.
Kiselitsa, E. P., Shilova, N. N., Liman, I. A., & Naumenko, E. E. (2018). Impact of spatial development on sustainable entrepreneurship. Entrepreneurship and Sustainability Issues, 6(2), 890–911. http://doi.org/10.9770/jesi.2018.6.2(28)
Kopeykina, N. (2018). Financial market experts forecast the Central Bank’s key rate for 2019–2024. Retrieved from http://www.1rre.ru/212602-klyuchevuyu-stavku-cb-na-2019-2024-god-sprognozirovali-eksperty-finansovogo-rynka.html
Kozma, E. S. (2018). Using an econometric model in predicting the activities of small enterprisesю Financial Management, 6, 31–37.
Kuzmin, E. A. (2017). Risk and uncertainty in concept of corporate lifecycle. Problems and Perspectives in Management, 15(1), 107–114. http://dx.doi.org/10.21511/ppm.15(1).2017.11
Kuzmin, E. A. (2018). Data on empirically estimated enterprise survival rate in Russia. Data in Brief, 16, 850–864. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.dib.2017.12.011
Lambert, T. E. (2017). Monopoly capital and entrepreneurism: Whither small business? Journal of Eurasian Economic Dialogue, 2(3), 1–12.
Litau, E. (2017). ‘Evolution of species’ in business: From mice to elephants. The question of small enterprise development. Journal of Advanced Research in Law and Economics, 8(6), 1812–1824. http://doi.org/10.14505/jarle.v8.6(28).16
Litau, E. (2018). Entrepreneurship and economic growth: A look from the perspective of cognitive economics. In ACM International Conference Proceeding Series (pp. 143–147). http://doi.org/10.1145/3271972.3271978
Maltseva, E. S., & Plakhov, A. V. (2018). Topical problems of taxation and development of small business in Russia. Business and Design Review, 1(9), 3–11.
Molchanenko, S. A. (2015). Factors in increasing the socio-economic efficiency of joint venture in a region. Modern Trends in Economy and Management: A New Approach, 31, 67–70.
Molina, J. A., Velilla, J., & Ortega, R. (2016). Entrepreneurial activity in the OECD: Pooled and cross-country evidence. Journal of Eurasian Economic Dialogue, 1(6), 1–18.
Morozko, N. I. (2018). Small business promotion factors. Economy. Tax. Law, 11(3), 64–70. https://doi.org/10.26794/1999-849X-2018-11-3-64-70
On approval of the Strategy for the Development of Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises in the Russian Federation until 2030 (together with the Plan of Events (Roadmap) for implementing the Strategy for the Development of Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises in the Russian Federation until 2030). Decree of the Government of the Russian Federation of June 2, 2016 No. 1083-r (ed. on March 30, 2018).
Ponomarev, V. A., & Petrov, M. V. (2018). Features of the development of an innovative enterprise with the support of the Innovation Support Fund. Radio Industry (Russia), 28(3), 86–91. https://doi.org/10.21778/2413-9599-2018-28-3-86-91
Ponomarev, V. A., & Petrov, M. V. (2019). Territorial interaction is the basis for the development of a small innovative enterprise and other territorial enterprises. Radio Industry (Russia), 29(1), 61–66. https://doi.org/10.21778/2413-9599-2019-29-1-61-66
Prokhodenko, O. O., & Trubetskaya, O. V. (2017). Problems of small business development. Vestnik of Young Scientists of Samara State University of Economics, 2(36), 68–73.
Raudeliuniene, J., Tvaronavičiene, M., & Dzemyda, I. (2014). Towards economic security and sustainability: Key success factors of sustainable entrepreneurship in conditions of global economy. Journal of Security and Sustainability Issues, 3(4), 71–79. https://doi.org/10.9770/jssi.2014.3.4(7)
Rosstat 2017. Retrieved from www.gks.ru.
Rosstat 2019. Key performance indicators of small enterprises (including microenterprises). Retrieved from http://www.gks.ru/free_doc/new_site/business/inst-preob/tab-mal_pr_m.htm
Ruban, D. A. (2018). Regional activity concentration of small enterprises in conditions of inflation. Bulletin of Ural Federal University. Series Economics and Management, 17(1), 52–70. https://doi.org/10.15826/vestnik.2018.17.1.003
Russia in Figures. (2016). Moscow, Rosstat.
Sibirskaya, E. V., & Oveshnikova, L. V. (2013). Methods for multicriteria and multivariate assessment of the effectiveness of infrastructure support for entrepreneurial activity. Research Bulletin of Belgorod State University. Series: Economics. Computer Science, 22(165), 55–61.
Smirnov, R. O. (2017). Issues of commercialization of innovative technologies in the Russian Federation in the field of entrepreneurial activities. Radio Industry (Russia), 3, 110–112. https://doi.org/10.21778/2413-9599-2017-3-110-112
The amount of finance poured into regions to support SMEs in 2018 will amount to 5,017 billion rubles. (2018). Retrieved from http://osspb.ru/osnews/obem_finansirovaniya_regionov_na_podderzhku_msp_v_2018_godu_sostavit_5017_mlrd_rubley
The forecast of the socio-economic development of the Russian Federation until 2024. (2018). Retrieved from http://economy.gov.ru/minec/activity/sections/macro/201801101
The main performance indicators of small enterprises (including microenterprises). Rosstat 2019. Retrieved from http://www.gks.ru/free_doc/new_site/business/inst-preob/tab-mal_pr_m.htm
The report on the results of the expert-analytical event “Analysis of the Implementation of Government Support for Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises in 2014–2017”. Bulletin of Accounts Chamber No. 9 (Sept.). Retrieved from http://www.ach.gov.ru/activities/bulleten/929/34572/
Titov B. (2018). The sector of small and medium-sized entrepreneurship: Russia and the world. Retrieved from http://stolypin.institute/wp-conten
t/uploads/2018/07/issledovanie-ier-msp-27.07.18.pdf
Trofimov, I. D. (2017). Entrepreneurship and policy dynamics: A theoretical framework. Journal of Eurasian Economic Dialogue, 2(3), 13–29.
Velilla, J. (2018). The entrepreneurial activity using gem data: Evidence for Spain (national and regional) and for Europe. Journal of Eurasian Economic Dialogue, 3(2), 18–32.
Vlasova, M. A., & Lyapina, I. R. (2015). Prediction of structural changes in business development in the Russian Federation. Economic Sciences and Humanities, 10(285), 97–102.
Zamakhina, T. (2019). Medvedev: Tax burden in Russia will not grow in the next six years. Rossiyskaya Gazeta=The Russian Newspaper, April 17. Retrieved from https://rg.ru/2019/04/17/medvedev-nalogovaia-nagruzka-v-rf-ne-budet-rasti-v-blizhajshie-shest-let.html
Zyuzina, E. D. (2019). Foreign experience of development of small business. Vector of Economy, 1(31).
Published
2020-03-21
How to Cite
Chunikhin, S. (2020). Modelling the Development Dynamics of Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises in Russia. Amazonia Investiga, 9(27), 116-128. https://doi.org/10.34069/AI/2020.27.03.12
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