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DOI: https://doi.org/10.34069/AI/2024.73.01.6
How to Cite:
Kolosok, V., Zhovkovska, T., Kravchenko, M., Kolosok, E., & Honchar, L. (2024). Consistency of quality management contours
for the development of industrial enterprises on the basis of target contour planning. Amazonia Investiga, 13(73), 74-86.
https://doi.org/10.34069/AI/2024.73.01.6
Consistency of quality management contours for the development of
industrial enterprises on the basis of target contour planning
Узгодженість контурів управління якістю розвитку промислових підприємств на основі
планування цільового контуру
Received: July 17, 2023 Accepted: January 10, 2024
Written by:
Valeriia Kolosok1
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6657-933X
Tatiana Zhovkovska2
https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3675-3330
Maryna Kravchenko3
https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2185-178X
Eduard Kolosok4
https://orcid.org/0009-0001-8753-2792
Liubov Honchar5
https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4014-2372
Abstract
To solve the problem of the qualitative
development of industrial enterprises, which lies
in the inconsistency of the contours of the quality
of the development of the scientific task. The
article proposes a methodical approach to the
planning of the consistency of the contours of the
quality management of the development of
industrial enterprises based on the planning of the
target contour based on the three-level system
model and the means of multifactor modeling,
the use of which will allow the management of
the industrial enterprise to monitor the state of
achievement/failure to achieve the planned
development goals and timely identify the cause
of this phenomenon during the normal process of
management coordination, destabilization and
recovery.
1
Doctor of Sciences in Economic Sciences, Professor, Department of Transport management and logistics, Head of Department,
Professor, Pryazovskyi State Technical University, Mariupol - Dnipro, Ukraine. WoS Researcher ID: AAC-4852-2019
2
Doctor of Economics Sciences, Western Ukrainian National University, Director of Chortkiv Vocational College of Economics and
Entrepreneurship, Ternopil, Ukraine. WoS Researcher ID: KBA-1621-2024
3
PhD, Associate Professor of the Department of Transport management and logistics, Pryazovskyi State Technical University,
Mariupol - Dnipro, Ukraine. WoS Researcher ID: KBB-0968-2024
4
Master, graduate student, Department of Transport management and logistics, graduate student, Pryazovskyi State Technical
University, Mariupol – Dnipro, Ukraine. WoS Researcher ID: IZT-4013-2023
5 Doctor of Sciences (pedagogical), Head of the Department of accounting and auditing, Donbass State Pedagogical University,
Slovyansk, Ukraine. WoS Researcher ID: ID Е-2964-2018
5 Doctor of Sciences (pedagogical), Head of the Department of accounting and auditing, Donbass State Pedagogical University,
Slovyansk, Ukraine. WoS Researcher ID: ID Е-2964-2018
Kolosok, V., Zhovkovska, T., Kravchenko, M., Kolosok, E., Honchar, L. / Volume 13 - Issue 73: 74-86 / January, 2024
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As a result of modeling and simulation
experiments, a bank of levels of operations for
various purposes and source data is obtained. The
obtained sets of action sequences can be used as
"road maps" in case of a real critical situation.
The proposed approach can be used to develop
options for future plans for qualitative
development of the enterprise by setting a target
situation for a certain future moment in time and
finding a sequence of intermediate situations of
qualitative development of the enterprise, which
leads to setting a goal.
Keywords: planning, contours of development,
quality of development, enterprises.
Introduction
To ensure high-quality development of
production, radical changes are needed not only in
the technological policy of the enterprise, but also
in the very ideology of strategic transformations.
Among the main problems on the way to
achieving high-quality development of
production, it is customary to single out
insufficient financial, material, technical and
personnel support. However, the complete or
partial lack of sufficient provision of production
development does not explain the fact that at
industrial enterprises where such a problem does
not exist, the achieved level of production
development can be called qualitative. Situations
often occur when the enterprise has resources, set
development goals and objectives, but there is no
time to implement the planned initiatives or the
moment is unfavorable. On the contrary, the time
is favorable for development (which involves
obtaining additional advantages due to the timely
response of the enterprise to the needs of the
external environment), but the enterprise lacks
resources. Thus, the root of the problem is hidden
in the inconsistency of such contours of
development quality management as:time
(necessary to perform the assigned
tasks);goal;resources (necessary expenses).
A solution to the scientific problem of planning
the consistency of quality management contours
of the development of industrial enterprises,
namely the consistency of the target contour with
time and resources by using multifactor modeling
tools and the simultaneous use of the advantages
of simulation experiments, is proposed.
The expediency and necessity of planning the
target contour of the enterprise's qualitative
development is explained by the need to develop
options for prospective development plans by
setting a target situation for a certain future
period of time and forming the necessary amount
of resource support. That is, the process of
planning the strategic goals of enterprise
development cannot be separated from such
important components as time (time contour) and
resources (resource contour). Only that goal has
a high chance of being achieved, which was set
in a timely manner and its achievement was
resource-based.
Based on the results of the study, it was possible
to work out options for future plans for
qualitative development of the enterprise by
setting a target situation for a certain future
moment in time and finding a sequence of
intermediate situations of qualitative
development of the enterprise, which leads to the
set goal.
On the basis of the analysis of existing concepts
regarding the planning of goals, the time required
for the performance of tasks, and resources
(chapter "Theoretical foundations or review of
the literature", in the chapter "Methodology" an
approach to planning the coherence of the
contours of quality management of the
development of industrial enterprises is proposed
on the basis of the planning of the target outline
based on the model of the three-level system and
multifactor modeling tools for the development
of options for future plans for the qualitative
development of the enterprise.
In the section "Results and discussion" the results
of simulation modeling of consistency of the
target contour with time and resource are
presented. A bank of transaction levels for
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different purposes and output data is obtained.
The resulting sets of action sequences can be
used as "road maps" in the event of a real critical
situation.
Theoretical framework or literature review
To understand the process of achieving high-
quality development of the enterprise, the
concept of "contours of the quality of
development: time, resources, goal" is proposed.
In management, it is customary to distinguish
"control loops", which are understood as a closed
chain of links of the control system, in which the
subject and the object of control are connected
using direct and feedback communication, for
example: the loop of economic planning, the loop
of controlling, etc. Daniel, Pierre A.;
Daniel, Carole (2018). Also, management
contours determine the general direction of the
organization, its divisions, and individual
employees Holmes & Leonard (2012).
Thus, a contour should be understood as a given
direction and sequence of actions. In the work,
the given direction is the achievement of the
quality of the development of the enterprise.
Susan Antler, Leslie Cooperband,
Craig S. Coker, Mary Schwarz, Robert Rynk
(2022) Argued that enterprise planning involves
a series of steps that include resource analysis;
assessment of the company's strengths and
weaknesses, opportunities and threats;
thoughtful development of the company's vision
and mission; goal setting; and assessment of
business and financial options.
Xiuhua Shi, Fei Zhou, Zhe Wang, (2021)
propose to improve the adaptability of situational
analysis to supplement the technical basis of
planning management.
Godwin Banafo Akrong, Yunfei Shao,
Ebenezer Owusu (2022) highlight that large
enterprises and governments increasingly rely on
planning systems.
Emanuel João Martins, Fernando Paulo Belfo
(2023) believe that one of the best ways to
optimize business processes is to implement an
enterprise resource planning system.
In the critical period of the digital reform of the
enterprise, the market interaction between the
enterprise resource planning system (ERP) and
the production management system (MES),
which is an important way for the development
of industrial enterprises. The performance of the
new model Zheng-Xin Wang, Yue-Qi Jv,
Ze-Dong Wang, Ji-Huan Ma (2023) confirmed
its significant prediction accuracy and
significantly increased reliability.
Muhmmad I. Nofal, Zawiyah M. Yusof (2013),
even a decade ago, suggested more attention
should be paid to the integration of business
intelligence and enterprise resource planning
(BIERP).
Forecasting the time contour of the quality of the
development of industrial enterprises based on
certain components (dynamics of changes in
technological structures in the country’s
economy; acceptance or rejection of a new
product by the market due to changes in
technological conditions; the speed of
advancement of new technologies at industrial
enterprises) makes it possible to achieve the
smallest time interval between the emergence of
the need for external environment and its
satisfaction from the enterprise (Hroznyi, 2014).
A study by Zeyu Wang, Yue Deng, Shouan
Zhou, Zhongbang Wu (2023) proposes goals for
achieving enterprise development and applies a
framework of recommendations for decision-
making and resource optimization of
entrepreneurial projects for sustainable socio-
economic development.
Hroznyi I. (2014) believes that the achievement
of a coherent state of consistency of quality
management contours can be implemented
through the determination of the necessary
quantity and quality of resources.
Therefore, it can be concluded that despite the
popularity of the planning of individual contours
of development quality management, there are no
studies that would consider the peculiarities of
the coherence of such contours based on the
planning of the target contour. Management of
the quality of the development of an industrial
enterprise involves the use of a set of methods of
planning and forecasting the coherence of the
contours of the management of the quality of
development.
Methodology
The management of the time contour of
development sets before the enterprise the task of
forecasting a favorable moment for the structural
restructuring of the production process at the
industrial enterprise in accordance with the needs
of scientific and technological progress, which
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leads to the achievement of qualitative
development of production and satisfaction of
consumer needs in the shortest possible time.
That is, the time contour of the development of
production should be understood as a specific
time range in which the necessary measures are
carried out or not carried out within the
framework of the implementation of the
development strategy.
The state of the external environment in relation
to the enterprise can be favorable, unfavorable or
neutral (Tarasova et al., 2021).
According to the results of forecasting the quality
management time contour of the industrial
enterprise development and determining the
favorable moment for the realization of the
intended goals and objectives, special attention
should be paid to the resource provision of this
process, because the level of balance between the
time and target contours will depend on the
planning of the resource management quality
contour of the enterprise development. The
resource contour of production development
consists of a set of listed resources and their
components. Ideally, in order to achieve a high
level of production development quality, all
components of the resource circuit should be in
equilibrium, i.e., the quality and quantity of
material resources corresponds to the level of
development of the technology used in
production thanks to the use of qualified labor
and is within the limits of the financing of the
production development program.
The target contour of the management of the
quality of the development of the enterprise
represents the directions along which the
financial and economic activity of the enterprise
should be carried out. This is a qualitative
characteristic of goals. On the other hand, the
goal should define the desired state of the system,
which should be achieved after a certain period
of time, necessary to obtain a certain quantitative
and qualitative assessment.
The analysis of the goals of the enterprise as a
system in various aspects makes it possible to
distinguish the following types of system views:
microscopic, functional, macroscopic,
hierarchical and procedural (Hroznyi, 2014).
In this article, the concept of structure should be
counted among the topological characteristics of
the system of goals, i.e. it fixes the location of
elements and links in this system.
For example, in the structural diagrams of
organizational systems, we will consider the
center, active elements, etc. - creative, and the
lines that connect them - real material and
informational connections between goals.
To date, (Hroznyi et al., 2018), that in the
mathematical theory of active systems,
management tasks were set, an optimal plan was
agreed upon, taking into account the interests of
the system as a whole and the interests of the
creators. The development of these ideas takes
place within the framework of the theory of
active systems, information theory of
hierarchical systems. However, in many
important practical cases, these theories lack
accurate ideas about the structures in specific
cases, their possible transformation in various
environmental conditions, and the resolution of
contradictions in the relationship between the
constituent goals.
Enterprise development goals are multi-layered
(Fobel & Kuzior, 2019). They form a hierarchy
analogous to a planning system, i.e. the system of
goals is the outline of the plan. Each structural
unit of the enterprise must have and has a certain
development goal, therefore the formulation of
the goals of the strategic plan is successful in
many respects when a balance is achieved
between the goals of the organization, the
necessary amount of resources for their
achievement and a favorable time range for their
implementation. (Hroznyi et al., 2014).
Thus, the use of a methodical approach to the
planning of the consistency of the contours of
quality management of the development of
industrial enterprises based on the planning of the
target contour should solve the following tasks:
1. Achieving a balance between time and
resource contours of qualitative
development of the enterprise.
2. Development of a mathematical toolkit, the
use of which will enable the management of
the enterprise to monitor the state of
achievement/failure to achieve the planned
goals and timely identify the cause of this
phenomenon.
A number of factors (concepts) are characteristic
for solving the tasks, the most important of which
are the following:
goals that determine the direction of system
development on a given modeling time horizon;
actions (operations) leading to the achievement
of goals;
indicators reflecting the state of the system.
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To solve the tasks, it is proposed to use formal
multifactor modeling based on a three-level
system consisting of graphs of goals, operations
and indicators that interact.
The development of a methodical approach to the
planning of the consistency of the contours of the
quality management of the development of
industrial enterprises based on the planning of the
target contour based on the model of the three-
level system includes the following stages:
1. Development of a basic model of the
interaction of goals, operations and
indicators in all possible states of coherence
between development contours (state of
stability, destabilization, recovery).
2. Analysis of the properties of the components
of the three-level system: attainability of
states at the level of operations and stability
of transient processes of mutual influence of
indicators on the state of
achievement/failure to achieve the set goal.
3. Introduction of a component into the model
that reflects the mutual influence of
deviations of indicators from the norm
(deviations) of the state of consistency
between contours.
Cause-and-effect relationships are set on sets of
goals, operations, and indicators, which are
reflected by the corresponding levels. The goals
of the system form a hierarchy in which the main
(global) goal and intermediate goals - milestones
on the way to the main one - are distinguished.
The level of goals models the order of
achievement of goals: from lower to higher. The
operations layer models a flow of operations that
can be executed both sequentially and in parallel.
The level of indicators models the mutual
influence of indicators.
The level of operations is modeled by a Petri net,
the positions of which correspond to the
operations of the implemented process,
transitions to the events of the change of
operations. Each position of the operations level
corresponds to a Boolean variable
0,1
i
p
:the operation is performed if
1
i
p=
, andnot
executed if
0
i
p=
. Transitions, in turn, are
"loaded" with decisive conditions - logical
functions from variables: time, values of
indicators (or deviations of indicators from the
norm), indicators of goal achievement. These
logical functions must ensure the network's
dynamism and determinism.
The level of goals is an acyclic Petri net, where
positions correspond to goals, transitions reflect
the achievement of higher goals as a result of the
achievement of lower ones. Each goal level
position corresponds to a Boolean variable
0,1
j
g
,the goal is achieved if
1
j
g=
,
and not reached if
0
j
g=
.
An indicator level is an oriented level, the
vertices of which are mapped by indicators.
Transitions between levels reflect the mutual
influence of indicators and are loaded with
functions that transform their change. The
vertices of the indicator level correspond to
variables that acquire values from a set of real
numbers
k
mR
.
The diagram of the interaction of the blocks of
the three-level system is shown in Figure 1,
where the upper rectangle corresponds to a
fragment of the level of goals, the middle one to
a fragment of the level of operations, and the
lower one to a fragment of the level of indicators.
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G3
Level of objectives
G1
G2
P1
P2
Level of
operations
t1
P3
Level of
operations
P4
P5
t2
M1
Indicator
level
M3
M2
G3
Level of objectives
G1
G2
P1
P2
Level of
operations
t1
P3
Level of
operations
P4
P5
t2
M1
Indicator
level
M3
M2
Figure 1. Scheme of interaction of the components of the three-level system.
Source: own research.
The process of managing the quality of the
enterprise's development is modeled on two time
scales - the operational one
0,1,...h=
and
indicator
0,1,..., ,H H h −
.
Intervals
)
1, , 1,...
ii
ih
−
=
are called
operating cycles characterized by a subset of
achieved goals
,
i
G
where
1
,
i i i
G G G G
−

(
G
– set of all targets).
This means the following: if any goal is achieved
during the simulation on the time horizon, then it
remains achieved until the end point of the
horizon,
i
P
–sets of operations,
, 1,2,...
iq
Pq=
– vectors of indicator values
characterizing operating cycles.
The qualitative development of the enterprise is
reflected by the cyclic repetition of the sequences
of the stages of the states of agreement (balance)
between three contours: target, resource and
time. The state of agreement can be: normal
(acceptable), unstable and in the process of
restoring the agreement density. Each of these
states is characterized by the functioning of the
levels of goals, operations, indicators and the
interaction between them are shown in Figure 2.
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Normal (acceptable) state of matching
contours
Level goals
goals
Basic level of
operations
The level of increase of
indicators
(the value of indicators
within normal range)
Destabilizing state of coherence of
contours
Deviation of
indicators
from the norm
Restorative state of coherence of
contours
Level of operations
recovery process
Deviation
indicators from the norm
at the level of operations
1
4
2
3
5
Normal (acceptable) state of matching
contours
Level goals
goals
Basic level of
operations
The level of increase of
indicators
(the value of indicators
within normal range)
Destabilizing state of coherence of
contours
Deviation of
indicators
from the norm
Restorative state of coherence of
contours
Level of operations
recovery process
Deviation
indicators from the norm
at the level of operations
1
4
2
3
5
Figure 2. States of consistency (balance) between contours in the management processquality of enterprise
development.
Source: own research.
For the period when the contours are in a normal
state of consistency with each other, the level of
indicators is modeled using a weighted sign
increment level. The dynamics of the change of
indicators in this model is determined by the
formula
( ) ( ) ( )
1
i i j ji
Gi
r r r + = +
, (1)
where
( )
i
r
–the value of the indicator at the
moment of time
,i
G
;
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( ) ( ) ( )
1
j j j
r r r = − −
–increase of
the indicator for the previous cycle;
ji
– indicator weight.
1. The interaction of levels is reflected by
loaded (decisive conditions) leading from
transitions between levels of operations to
the top of goals and indicators. Feedback
from these levels to the level of operations is
revealed through the permissive conditions
that load its transitions (Tupkalo, 2020).
The basic level of operations is the coordinator of
the functioning of the modeled system during the
normal state of coordination between circuits.
As a result of triggering its transition
i
t
:
upon fulfillment of the conditions leading to
i
t
in certain positions
q
c
goal level, goal
achievement is modeled
q
c
(arrow 1 in Figure 2).
At the level of goals, a transitional process is
launched, which ends (due to the acyclicity of the
level of goals) with the establishment of
equilibrium between contours;
guiding influences on the level of indicators are
presented, which cause a jump-like change in
their values (arrow 2 in Figure 2) and, as a result,
a transitional process in the level of indicators,
during which the vector of indicator values
changes. The number of steps of this process can
be estimated from above by the value
.
Let's assume that the transition
i
t
converted the
level of operations into marking (state)
j
D
,in
which transitions are activated (can work).
,...
ji je
tt
, loaded and triggered by boolean
functions
,...
ji je
ff
. Two alternative results of
the process at the level of indicators are possible
(arrow 3 in Figure 2):
1. Any of the functions will acquire the value 1
,...
ji je
ff
і, as a result, the corresponding
transition at the evel of operations will be
triggered, leading to the following marking.
2. The estimate will be reached and the
simulation experiment on the three-level
model will stop.
Another reason for stopping modeling is the
achievement of all set goals (arrow 4 in Figure
2).
The destabilization of coordination between the
contours of the quality management of the
enterprise's development is caused by external
influence (arrow 5 in Figure 2) or critical
accumulation of internal changes in the system.
This is expressed in the deviation from the norm
of some indicators, which, due to the presence of
cause-and-effect relationships, initiate the
deviation of other indicators, etc. An
uncontrolled process of the spread of deviations,
characteristic of a crisis situation, is launched.
The introduction of deviations in the model of the
quality management cycle of the enterprise
development is explained by the fact that its
application makes it possible to increase the
adequacy of the modeling (due to the loading of
linear functions) and facilitates the expert's
understanding of the processes implemented in
the system (crisis situations are usually perceived
in terms of deviations of indicators from norms)
(Hroznyi, Kuzmak & Rusinova, 2018).
For the period of the normal state of coherence
between the contours, the model in Fig. 2 is
three-component, and destabilization is reflected
by a one-component model. A two-component
model consisting of deviations that interact with
each other and a special level of recovery
operations corresponds to the recovery period of
coherence between the contours. The goal of the
recovery process is standard: bringing indicators
back to normal, so there is no level of goals in
this structure. The level of restorative operations
controls deviations of indicators (arrow 6 in
Figure 2) and gradually brings them to zero
(close to zero) value
Results and discusión
The following actions are performed during the
simulation modeling of the consistency of the
target contour with the time and resource
contour.
For the period of the normal state of consistency
between contours:
1. The achievement of the goals is checked on
the given modeling time horizon. If all the
goals are achieved, then the moment of
achievement is indicated. If not, then the
place and moment of "hanging" between the
levels of operations and goals is recorded.
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2. Time changes of the values of the system
indicators for the period of the normal state
are built.
For the destabilizing process of matching
between contours:
1. If the destabilization process comes to
equilibrium before the end of the specified
control period, then the moment of
establishing equilibrium and the final
deviations of the indicators from the norm
are fixed.
If it does not come, then the simulation is
interrupted either by time or in case of critical
deviations of the indicators. The moment (tact) at
which the rebuilding process is started is selected
and the initial deviations of indicators for this
process are set.
2. Time graphs reflecting the dynamics of the
destabilization process are built.
For the restoring process of coherence between
contours:
1. The expert sets the value of the guiding
influences of the transitions of the
restorative level of operations according to
deviation indicators and, on this basis,
conducts a simulation experiment on the
normalization of indicators. If the specified
number of indicators is normalized ( number
of indicators), then we return to the normal
operation mode. Otherwise, we correct the
governing influences and repeat the
experiment.
2. Time graphs reflecting the dynamics of the
restoration process are constructed for each
experiment.
In the period of the normal state of consistency
between the target, time and resource contours,
the indicators of the system are characterized by
their normal point estimates, in this period, with
their combined influence on another indicator,
we find the resulting change as the sum of the
effects of each indicator, therefore, we believe
that we are able to give an estimate of the change
in the indicator from with a slight degree of
uncertainty.
The degree of uncertainty in its assessment
increases with the growth of the growth rate of
the indicator. Finally, the point estimate of the
indicator goes beyond the normal range, and the
expert is no longer able to give an adequate
assessment of it. In this case, the model of the
mutual influence of indicators is replaced by a
graph of deviations, in which the degree of
deviation from this range is evaluated, not the
point value of the indicator within the
permissible range of values. At the same time,
evaluating the joint influence of several
indicators on one, it is difficult to assess the
contribution of each of them.
Therefore, only those indicators that have the
greatest impact are taken into account (taking
into account the sign) (Kuzior, Kwilinski, &
Hroznyi, 2021).
So, in the first step, the levels of mutual influence
of indicators are constructed during the periods
of the normal state of consistency between the
contours and the period of the crisis situation, the
range of normal values of each indicator of the
system is selected for the period of normal
operation, and the degrees of influence of the
indicators on each other for the periods of
destabilization/recovery are set.
In the second step, the level of goals for the
period of the normal state of coherence is built.
The level of goals for the recovery period
degenerates to one goal: to bring all indicators to
the norm (that is, to obtain an estimate of the
deviation of indicators from the norm in the
range from "very small negative" to "very small
positive").
The goals set can be contradictory and
alternative. Examples of graphical
representations of alternative and conflicting
goals left and right respectivelyare shown in
Figure 3.
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Top level goal
Alternative
goal 1
Alternative
goal 2
Contradictory
goal 1
Contradictory
goal 2
Compromise
position
A lower level
goal
Top level goal
Alternative
goal 1
Alternative
goal 2
Contradictory
goal 1
Contradictory
goal 2
Compromise
position
A lower level
goal
Figure 3. Examples of alternative (left) and conflicting (right) goals.
Source: own research.
Alternative goals are characterized by the fact
that to achieve a higher-level goal, it will be
enough to achieve any of them, which is shown
in Figure 3. In the left column, when a marker is
inserted into any of the lower-level goal
positions, its output transition will be triggered,
and the upper-level goal will be achieved.
Conflicting goals are characterized by the fact
that the achievement of one of them excludes the
achievement of the other, as shown in Figure 3
on the right. When a marker is placed in the
"Lower Level Goal" position, one of its two
output transitions will be triggered. At the same
time, the marker will be transferred to only one
of the upper level goals, and the second will
remain unreached.
The level of goals makes it possible to present the
hierarchy and decomposition of goals and tasks
set before the system, to highlight milestones on
the way to global goals. In the general case, the
level of goals does not have to be binding, it can
be a set of trees ("forest") (Repin & Eliferov,
2013).
In the third step, the level of operations is built,
which manages the level of indicators and the
level of goals.
Before compiling the level of operations, an
expert analyst forms a set of actions necessary to
achieve the qualitative development of the
enterprise. For each operation, the following is
determined:
− what goals does the operation lead to and on
the basis of which criteria the goal can be
considered achieved;
− which indicators are affected by the
operation and in what way (changes its
evaluation by some fixed value, sets its
value, etc.).
After that, the analyst builds chains of their
execution from these operations in accordance
with his idea of the company's development
strategy. For the period of the normal state of
consistency between the contours of the
qualitative development of the enterprise and the
recovery process, their levels of interaction are
built.
In the fourth step, connections between the levels
of goals, operations and indicators are
established. Thus a three-level system model is
formed.
At the same time, it is advisable to apply the
aggregate-module principle with the use as
modules of typical fragments of the levels of
goals, operations, indicators and the formation of
appropriate libraries.
In the fifth step, the expert conducts simulation
experiments on the three-level model, applying
external influences to its inputs. Tables and
graphs obtained during the experiment are taken
into account in order to determine the
effectiveness of the corresponding strategy of
system development. These tables, in turn, can be
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combined into a graph-table model, which will
display ribbons (sequences) of states on the
levels - components of the three-level structure,
as well as transitions leading to changes in these
states.
The three-level structure functions in a "slow"
(operational) tact, which corresponds to the
triggering moments of transitions at the level of
operations, in which management actions are
formed at the level of goals and the level of
indicators. The interval between adjacent
moments on the scale, called the local modeling
horizon, consists of steps due to the "fast"
(indicative) tact. On the local horizon in the
three-level system, the process of changing the
values of indicators (during the period of
stability) and deviations of indicators from the
norm (during destabilization and recovery) is
realized.
After carrying out a simulation experiment and
receiving its results, the expert makes a decision
about its effectiveness and, if necessary, makes
amendments to the level of operations:
changes the composition and order of
transactions;
changes functions at transitions between
operations;
changes functions from the level of operations to
the level of goals and indicators.
Next, the expert carries out a repeated simulation
experiment with a new level of operations.
The process described above is repeated until the
expert receives a level of operations that will
satisfy him (taking into account the limitations of
the external environment), or reaches the
conclusion that the achievement of the set goals
is impossible. In Figure 4 offers a general scheme
of the modeling process.
Beginning
Build level goals
Build a level of indicators
Build a new level of operations
Conduct a simulation experiment
Is the result
satisfactory?
Add a new level of transactions to the
bank of possible solutions to achieve
goals
End
No
o
Yes
Beginning
Build level goals
Build a level of indicators
Build a new level of operations
Conduct a simulation experiment
Is the result
satisfactory?
Add a new level of transactions to the
bank of possible solutions to achieve
goals
End
No
o
Yes
Figure 4. Schematic of the process of simulation of prospective target situations.
Source: own research.
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/ January 2024
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After that, the expert can repeat the whole
process again, specifying other initial values of
the indicators for the period of normal
(acceptable) consistency and deviations from the
norm for the period of destabilization.
Thus, as a result of simulations and simulation
experiments, a bank of levels of operations for
various purposes and initial data is obtained. The
obtained sets of sequences of actions can be used
as "road maps" in the event of a real critical
Conclusions
Thus, achieving a state of consistency of quality
management contours becomes real by
determining the necessary quantity and quality of
resources in accordance with the set goals of the
enterprise's development in a favorable time
period. For this purpose, a methodical approach
to the planning of the consistency of quality
management contours of the development of
industrial enterprises is proposed based on the
planning of the target contour based on the three-
level system model and multifactor modeling
tools, which involves the use of a set of planning
methods and forecasting of the consistency of the
quality management contours of development by
reducing the gap between the selected contours,
bringing them into a state of balance and
unidirectionality with the aim of achieving
consistency between inherently inconsistent
management objects, which makes it possible to
realize potential opportunities for development
and increase the level of quality due to meeting
the needs of the external environment in the
shortest possible time.
When planning the target contour based on the
three-level system model, the following stages
are defined: development of the basic model of
the mutual influence of goals, operations and
indicators in states of stability, destabilization
and recovery; analysis of the attainability of
states at the level of operations and stability of
transient processes of mutual influence of
indicators on the state of achievement/failure to
achieve the set goal; introduction into the model
of a component that reflects the mutual influence
of deviations of indicators from the norm
(deviations) of the state of consistency between
contours.
As a result of simulations and simulation
experiments of the consistency of the target
contour with time and resource, a bank of levels
of operations for various purposes and initial data
was obtained.
The proposed approach can be used to develop
options for future plans for qualitative
development of the enterprise by setting a target
situation for a certain future moment in time and
finding a sequence of intermediate situations of
qualitative development of the enterprise that
leads to the set goal.
Prospects for further research in the development
of the topic consist in the development of
approaches to forecasting the time contour of the
quality of the development of industrial
enterprises on the basis of the dynamics of the
promotion of new technologies at industrial
enterprises.
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