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DOI: https://doi.org/10.34069/AI/2023.67.07.31
How to Cite:
Niyazbekova, S., Balova, S., Bulakbay, Z., Maisigova, L., & Troyanskaya, M. (2023). Analysis of trends in the financial sector of
the global fuel and energy complex. Amazonia Investiga, 12(67), 352-373. https://doi.org/10.34069/AI/2023.67.07.31
Analysis of trends in the financial sector of the global fuel and energy
complex
Análisis de las tendencias del sector financiero del complejo mundial de combustibles y
energía
Received: June 20, 2023 Accepted: July 23, 2023
Written by:
Shakizada Niyazbekova1
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3433-9841
Suzana Balova2
https://orcid.org/0009-0004-7167-6726
Zhanat Bulakbay3
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3742-6756
Leila Maisigova4
https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2148-4924
Marija Troyanskaya5
https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4545-3786
Abstract
Understanding the global impact of energy on the
economy and the financial sector is crucial for
improving their interaction, especially within the
fuel and energy complex (FEC). This study aims to
identify the primary investment drivers for the
financial sector within the FEC. It incorporates
opinions, conclusions, and forecasts from leading
international organizations that monitor the
financial sector and the FEC. Through
comprehensive analysis, key investment drivers
were identified, including renewable and nuclear
energy, risks associated with nuclear energy usage,
and the impact of traditional fossil fuel sources. The
analysis revealed distinct clusters of investment
drivers that shape the future development of the
financial sector within the FEC. The study
determined the rank, median, and relative ranking
of investment attractiveness for each cluster and
investment vector. This information is valuable for
finance and economics specialists and holds
scientific significance for experts studying
1
Ph.D. in Finance. Money Circulation and Credit, Associate Professor, Senior Researcher at the Scientific and Educational Center
Sustainable Development, Moscow Witte University, Moscow, Russian Federation; Associate Professor at the Department of Banking
and Financial Markets, Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, Moscow, Russian Federation.
Researcher ID: E-7112-2015
2
Ph.D. in Economics, Аssociate Professor at the Logistics and Marketing Department, Financial University under the Government of
the Russian Federation, Moscow, Russian Federation. Researcher ID: CFA-6323-2022
3
Ph.D. in Economics, Аssociate Professor, Аssociate Professor at the Finance Department, L.N.Gumilyov Eurasian National
University, NurSultan, Republic of Kazakhstan. Researcher ID: ITU-5101-2023
4
Ph.D. in Economics, Аssociate Professor at the Department “Accounting, Analysis and Audit”, Ingush State University, Magas,
Russian Federation. Researcher ID: AAD-3063-2020
5
Doctor of Economics, Associate Professor, Head of the Department of State and Municipal Administration, Orenburg State
University, Orenburg, Russian Federation. Researcher ID: F-1395-2015
Niyazbekova, S., Balova, S., Bulakbay, Z., Maisigova, L., Troyanskaya, M. / Volume 12 - Issue 67: 352-373 / July, 2023
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globalization and energy sector trends. The
complex cluster analysis used provides a structured
system of potential investment drivers for the
development of the financial sector within the FEC.
This framework is applicable to related studies
relying on expert opinions and forecasts.
Keywords: global, trend, driver, financing, energy,
future.
Introduction
The design and implementation of strategies for
the development of the fuel and energy complex
(FEC) are currently facing a number of
challenges, including global climate change,
reduced availability of certain energy resources,
increased consumption, etc. These challenges
directly affect the financial sector of the FEC,
which is a key factor in the investment and
development of the industry. In this regard, the
study of trends in the financial sector of the
global FEC is highly relevant (Marhasova et al.,
2020; Polishchuk, Kornyliuk, Lopashchuk &
Pinchuk, 2020; Nurpeisova et al., 2020). The first
reason why the study of trends in the financial
sector of the global fuel and energy complex is
relevant is that this sector is an integral part of the
global economy. It includes large international
companies engaged in the extraction, production
and sale of energy resources, as well as financial
institutions providing financial services and
investing in the industry. Therefore, an analysis
of trends in the development of the financial
sector of the fuel and energy sector allows us to
assess its contribution to the economy and
identify opportunities for its development and
efficiency improvement (Sotnyk et al., 2021;
Shkola et al., 2021; Shpak et al., 2022).
The second reason why the study of trends in the
financial sector of the global fuel and energy
complex is relevant is that this sector is a link
between energy companies and investors. An
analysis of trends in the financial sector of the
fuel and energy complexmakes it possible to
identify opportunities for investing in the
industry and assess the risks associated with
investments. This can be an important factor for
decision-making by investors and other market
participants (Niyazbekova et al., 2021;
Kerimkulova et al., 2021; Kolodii et al., 2019;
Khutorna et al., 2021; Jalgasovna,
Abduvakhabovna & Ramizitdinovna, 2023).
The third reason why the study of trends in the
development of the financial sector of the global
FEC is relevant is that this sector has a significant
impact on the environment and climate change,
as it is associated with the production and
consumption of energy resources. An analysis of
trends in the financial sector of the fuel and
energy sector makes it possible to assess the
environmental risks and opportunities associated
with investing in the industry and to take
measures to reduce the negative impact on the
environment (Tulchynska et al., 2021;
Manigandan et al., 2023; Ali, Jianguo &
Kirikkaleli, 2023; Prokopenko & Shkola, 2012).
The fourth reason why the study of trends in the
financial sector of the global fuel and energy
complex is relevant is that the existing instability
in the world markets is largely related to energy-
related industries such as oil, gas, and coal.
Analyzing trends in the financial sector of the
fuel and energy sector will help predict possible
changes in the market and develop strategies to
minimize risks and maximize profits (Abbas et
al., 2023; Zioło, 2023; Achuo, Kakeu, & Asongu,
2023).
The fifth reason why the study of trends in the
financial sector of the global fuel and energy
complex is relevant is geopolitical risks.
Geopolitical risks in the FEC may have various
implications for the financial sector, including
reduced access to capital, changes in market
dynamics and changes in tariff policies. Also,
such risks could lead to increased market
competition and a change in the global balance of
power (Dong et al., 2023; Ha, 2023; Chishti,
Sinha, Zaman & Shahzad, 2023).
Therefore, an analysis of trends in the
development of the global FEC financial sector
in the context of geopolitical risks is critical to
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understanding the global market situation and
making informed investment decisions. The
research can help investors and other
stakeholders to take measures to minimize risks
and protect their interests in the context of
uncertainty and instability in the world markets.
In general, the study of trends in the development
of the financial sector of the global fuel and
energy complex is important for understanding
the current state of the industry, assessing its
potential and risks associated with investment, as
well as for developing strategies for sustainable
development and environmental protection.
The purpose of the study is to establish the
financial drivers of the present and future
development of the global FEC, considering the
actual financial and economic picture of the
world.
Research Objectives:
1. Analysis of the scientometric landscape
regarding the links and mutual influence of
the financial sector and the FEC.
2. Analysis of expert opinions, conclusions and
forecasts regarding the development of the
financial sector of the fuel and energy
complex.
3. Establishment of probable drivers for the
development of the financial sector of the
fuel and energy complex.
The study on the financial drivers of the
development of the global fuel and energy
complex has both scientific and practical value.
The scientific value lies in the identification of
financial factors affecting the development of the
fuel and energy complex and in their detailed
analysis. This allows to deepen the understanding
of the mechanisms of functioning of the FEC and
to develop new theoretical approaches to the
development of the industry. The practical
significance of the research is that it allows
identifying the most effective strategies for FEC
development based on financial drivers. The
analysis of financial factors also allows
identifying the financial risks associated with the
development of the fuel and energy complex, and
to develop measures to reduce them. The results
obtained can be used in the development of
public policy and business strategies in the FEC
industry, as well as for investment and decision-
making in the financial markets.
Theoretical Framework or Literature Review
Let us analyze the relevant and current
publications of the leading scientometric
databases on current trends in the financial
sphere of the fuel and energy complex.
A study Colenbrander et al., (2023) found that
the transition to a low-carbon economy could
pose significant risks to India's financial system
due to the changing geopolitical situation,
declining demand for oil and gas, climate change,
and rising health and security risks.
To mitigate the risks, it is recommended that
sustainable development strategies include
economic diversification, investment in clean
energy and energy efficiency, and active
engagement with the international community
for financial support.
According to a study by Nibedita and Irfan
(2023), energy diversity in the E7 economies
lowers carbon emissions, especially when
renewable energy is used.
However, dependence on coal, oil, and gas, as
well as the high cost of investing in clean energy
sources, can weaken the link between energy
diversification and carbon reduction. Successful
diversification requires sustainable development
strategies that include investment in renewable
energy, energy efficiency, and infrastructure
improvements. The results of the study can be
useful for investment decisions and sustainability
strategies in E7 economies and elsewhere.
A new model, MATRIX (Multi-Agent Model for
Transition Risks with Application to Energy
Shocks), is presented in the research Ciola et al.,
(2023) to evaluate the risks associated with the
transition to a low-carbon economy while
accounting for energy shocks.
The main conclusions of the study are related to
the application of the model to two countries -
Italy and France - namely to the identification of
risks associated with oil and gas market
instability. The simulation results showed that
the transition to a low-carbon economy can
reduce the dependence on oil and gas and reduce
the risks associated with the price volatility of
these resources. It was also found that there is a
difference in dependence on oil and gas between
Italy and France, which emphasizes the need for
an individual approach to each country. Overall,
the study (Ciola et al., 2023) demonstrates that
the development of integrated models can be
useful for investment decisions and sustainable
development strategies.
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Using the UK as a case study, Caglar (2023)
examines the importance of the nuclear budget in
the shift to a low-carbon economy.
The study finds that increasing the budget for
nuclear power can facilitate the transition to a
low-carbon economy, especially in an
environment where other renewable energy
sources are not yet commercially viable.
However, the risks associated with nuclear
power, such as unforeseen accidents and the high
costs of storing radioactive waste, must be
considered. The results of the study may be
useful for sustainability strategies in other
countries, especially those with few renewable
energy sources.
The relationship between macroeconomic and
financial policies and climate change is
examined in a study by Azam, Hunjra, and
Taskin (2023).
The results of the study show that
macroeconomic policies such as credit, fiscal and
monetary policies have a large impact on carbon
emissions and climate change. It also found that
financial policies, such as investments in
renewable energy and sustainable technologies,
can reduce carbon emissions and have a positive
impact on climate change. The study highlights
the need to integrate macroeconomic and
financial policies to achieve sustainable
development and reduce the impact on climate
change. The results can be useful for designing
sustainable development strategies and
macroeconomic policies that contribute to
reducing carbon emissions and combating
climate change.
Anu, Singh, Raza, Nakonieczny, and Shahzad
(2023) conducted research on the impact of
energy efficiency, green innovation, and
financial inclusion on environmental
productivity in both developed and developing
economies. The results of the study show that
financial inclusion, green innovation and energy
efficiency have a positive impact on
environmental productivity in both types of
economies. However, these factors have a
stronger impact on environmental productivity in
developing economies than in developed
economies. The results of the study underscore
the need for measures to support financial
inclusion, green innovation, and energy
efficiency in both types of economies, especially
in developing economies, in order to achieve
sustainable development.
The relationship between money and the dangers
related to climate change is examined in a study
by Borio, Claessens, and Tarashev (2023). The
authors note that the financial sector can play an
important role in addressing climate change, but
only if it manages expectations and takes action
to reduce risks. The authors emphasize the need
to better assess climate risks and to develop
standards for accounting for these risks in
financial reporting. It was also found that taking
action to reduce climate change risks can lead to
new opportunities for the financial sector,
including in renewable energy, green bonds and
other green investments. The results of the study
can be useful for designing sustainability
strategies that take into account the financial
aspects of combating climate change.
The study Jia (2023) analyzes the impact of green
financial policies on the level of decarbonization
of economies using the examples of the United
States, China and Russia. The results of the study
show that green financial policies have a positive
impact on the level of decarbonization of
economies in all three countries. However, China
is a leader in the implementation of green
financial policies, while the U.S. and Russia are
lagging behind in this aspect. The study
emphasizes the need to strengthen green
financial policies in all countries in order to
achieve higher levels of decarbonization and
combat climate change. The results of the study
can be useful for the development of sustainable
development strategies based on green financial
policies.
Using agent-based integrated evaluation models,
Naumann-Woleske (2023) proposes new
techniques for evaluating the environmental
effects of economic and energy policy. The
author notes that agent-based models are more
flexible and adaptive than traditional integrated
models because they take into account a wider
range of variables and interactions between them.
It was also found that agent-based models can
help in making more accurate economic and
energy policy decisions that will contribute to
more sustainable development and combat
climate change. The results of the study can be
useful for the development of sustainable
development strategies based on agent-based
models.
A study Xu et al., (2023) presents a new method
for reconstructing international energy trade
networks based on given marginal data. The
authors apply graph theory to analyze the
network structures of international energy trade
flows, including oil, gas, and coal, in order to
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identify the most significant nodes and links in
these networks. The study shows that energy
trade networks have a significant impact on the
global economy and environment, and that their
analysis can help make better decisions about
energy policy and combating climate change.
The results of the study can be useful for
developing sustainable development strategies
that take into account international energy trade
flows and their impact on the environment.
Summarizing the results of the research, several
key financial drivers for the development of the
global fuel and energy complex can be identified.
One of them is the transition to a low-carbon
economy, which is becoming increasingly
important considering the climate change
problem. Another important driver is the
financial involvement in the development of
alternative energy sources, such as solar and
wind energy, which are becoming more
competitive every year. Geopolitical risks and
sanctions, including those against the Russian
fuel and energy complex, also have a significant
impact on the development of the fuel and energy
complex. Of great importance are financial risk
analysis tools, such as risk assessment models
and integrated assessment models, which make it
possible to assess the impact of various factors on
the development of the fuel and energy complex
and to predict possible risks. In general, the
financial drivers of global FEC development are
becoming increasingly complex and
multidimensional, requiring more in-depth
analysis and the development of new strategies
for sustainable development.
Methodology
The following methods were used to achieve the
goal and objectives of this study:
1. Correlation analysis regarding the mutual
influence of the financial sector and the fuel
and energy complex: correlation analysis is
used to study the relationship between the
financial sector and the fuel and energy
complex. This method allows us to assess
the degree of dependence between different
variables and determine which of them
influence the others. Correlation analysis is
applied to identify the relationship between
financial investments and investments in the
fuel and energy sector, as well as to
determine which factors may influence the
development of these sectors in the future.
2. Method of assessment and analysis of expert
opinions, conclusions and forecasts
concerning the current state and probable
scenarios of development of the FEC
financial sector: this method allowed to
analyze the works of leading expert
organizations, which perform analytical and
statistical research of the FEC financial
sector. The results obtained were used to
analyze the current situation, identify
possible risks and trends, as well as to
forecast the future development of this
sector. This method is an important tool for
making strategic decisions and developing
action plans in the financial sector of the
FEC.
3. Correlation analysis of forecast data of
leading expert organizations of the financial
sector of the fuel and energy complex: this
method provided an opportunity to establish
probabilistic drivers of development of the
financial sector of the fuel and energy
complex, such as changes in the regulatory
environment, increased investment in clean
energy and growth of demand for alternative
energy sources. This method allows us to
more accurately assess the likelihood of
future trends in the development of the
financial sector of the fuel and energy
complex and to make appropriate decisions
in risk management.
The expert basis, the analytical data of which
were used in this study, was formed on the basis
of the works of the following specialized
organizations Table 1.
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Table 1.
Brief characteristics of expert organizations.
Name of organization
Brief description and reference
International Energy
Agency (IEA)
The International Energy Agency (IEA) is a key international agency that analyzes
and forecasts the global energy market, including various aspects related to
production, consumption, security and the environment. IEA is an authoritative
source of information for many countries and regions, including the financial sector,
which can use IEA forecasts and analysis when making decisions about investing in
the fuel and energy sector. In addition, the IEA also provides valuable information
and guidance on energy efficiency, increased use of renewable energy and reductions
in greenhouse gas emissions, which can be useful for investors who are focused on
financing environmentally friendly projects in the FEC. (https://www.iea.org/).
International Renewable
Energy Agency (IRENA)
The International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) is an international agency
established in 2009 to facilitate the development and promotion of renewable energy
sources (RES) worldwide. IRENA is a global platform for international cooperation
with more than 160 member states, including the European Union. It promotes the
exchange of knowledge and transfer of experience in the development and
implementation of new technologies, increasing the efficiency and affordability of
renewable energy, and supports the development and implementation of strategies
and policies in the field of renewable energy. As part of its activities, IRENA
conducts analytical research, including in the field of economics, finance and
investment in renewable energy, which makes it a significant source of information
and analysis for financial sector analysts in the fuel and energy sector dealing with
investment in renewable energy (https://www.irena.org/).
World Economic Forum
(WEF)
World Economic Forum (WEF) is an international organization that conducts
research, organizes conferences and forums aimed at solving global economic and
social problems. WEF is also a center for the exchange of views between business
leaders, government officials, experts and academics, as well as representatives of
international organizations. In the context of financial sector analysis of the energy
sector, WEF conducts research and analyzes trends regarding investments and
sustainable development in the energy industry. The organization also considers
various aspects of energy policy, including the transition to cleaner energy sources,
energy efficiency and risk management in relation to climate change. Drawing on its
expertise and network of contacts, WEF acts as a platform for the exchange of
experience between stakeholders who work in the financial sector of the fuel and
energy sector and strive for sustainable and innovative development of the industry
(https://www.weforum.org/).
Organisation for
Economic Co-operation
and Development
(OECD)
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) is an
international organization established to coordinate economic policy and cooperation
among its member states. In the context of financial sector analysis of the fuel and
energy sector, the OECD researches and analyzes energy sector policy and
regulation, including issues of energy security, efficiency, innovation and
environmental sustainability. The organization provides data and analytical reports
that help member states make effective energy decisions, including the financing of
FEC projects. The OECD also engages in international cooperation and exchange of
experience in the field of energy and finance (https://www.oecd.org/).
International Monetary
Fund (IMF)
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is an international organization whose main
purpose is to ensure global financial stability and promote international trade by
coordinating monetary policies and providing financial support. In the context of
analyzing the financial sector of the fuel and energy sector, IMF has a number of
publications and reports that analyze the impact of financial risks on the economic
growth and stability of countries, including those dependent on oil and gas exports.
IMF reports also include analyses of economic policy, regulation and measures to
reduce greenhouse gas emissions that are important for the development of the fuel
and energy sector (https://www.imf.org/).
United Nations (UN)
United Nations (UN) is an intergovernmental organization established to maintain
peace, security and cooperation between nations. In the context of financial sector
analysis of the FEC, the UN acts as a facilitator of coordination and regulation of the
international financial system. The UN is also active in sustainable development
issues, including the development and implementation of programs to reduce carbon
emissions and improve access to clean energy. As part of its programs, the UN
works with the financial sector, including international financial institutions, to
support projects and programs related to sustainable development, energy efficiency,
and greenhouse gas reduction (https://www.un.org/).
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World Bank (WB)
The World Bank (WB) is an international financial institution established to provide
financial and technical assistance to developing countries in order to fight poverty
and improve living standards. In the context of financial sector analysis of the fuel
and energy sector, the World Bank is an important source of financing for energy
and climate change projects. It also provides expertise in developing energy
strategies and policies, as well as training in these areas
(https://www.worldbank.org/).
European Bank for
Reconstruction and
Development (EBRD)
The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) is an international
financial institution established to support market reforms and democratic transition
in Central and Eastern Europe, the Caucasus, and Central Asia. The EBRD works in
various sectors, including energy, and actively supports the development of
renewable energy projects in the region. It also provides financial and technical
assistance to companies involved in the production of energy technology and
equipment. In the context of FEC financial sector analytics, EBRD is an important
source of data and information on energy and climate projects and investments in the
region, and plays an important role in supporting the financing of energy projects
(https://www.ebrd.com/).
Energy Information
Administration (EIA)
The Energy Information Administration (EIA) is the U.S. government's energy
information agency that collects, analyzes and disseminates information on energy
policy, consumption and production in the United States and around the world. EIA
provides statistics, forecasts, and analysis that can be useful to financial sector
analysts of the FEC as they can be used to forecast energy demand, energy prices,
and changes in the structure of the energy sector (https://www.eia.gov/).
European Commission
The European Commission (EC) is the executive body of the European Union, which
is responsible for developing legislative proposals, monitoring the implementation of
laws and managing the budget. In the context of financial sector analysis of the FEC,
the EU works to develop and implement policies to promote savings, reduce
greenhouse gas emissions and stimulate investment in cleaner technologies and
production. The EU also works in the field of energy efficiency, supporting measures
aimed at reducing energy consumption in industry, construction and transport. In
addition, the EU develops rules and regulations to collect, analyze and disseminate
information on energy use and greenhouse gas emissions
(https://commission.europa.eu/).
Source: Created by the author based on public data
The use of data from leading industry
organizations, such as IEA, IRENA, WEF,
OECD, IMF, UN, WB, EBRD, EIA and EU, in
the analysis of the FEC financial sector provides
meaningful information for decision-making in
the field of investment, development and
industry regulation. Each of these organizations
contributes to the analysis of the financial
condition and development prospects of the FEC
by providing data on the current situation, trends
and forecasts in the industry. Through the use of
these organizations' data, financial institutions
and companies can make better-informed
decisions, taking into account the prospects for
industry development and the risks associated
with climate change and the transition to cleaner
and more sustainable energy sources.
Results and Discussion
The global economy is experiencing a steady
growth in energy consumption based on high
levels of industrialization, rapid population
growth, and increasing economic activity in
various regions of the world. Constantly growing
energy consumption is an important component
of economic development, especially in
developing countries. Energy is a key factor of
production in many sectors of the economy, such
as industry, transport and housing. Moreover,
population growth and rising living standards
also lead to increased energy consumption as
people need more energy to meet their needs
(Rode al., 2021; Hassan, Wang, Khan & Zhu,
2023; Doytch, Elheddad & Hammoudeh, 2023) -
Figure 1, Figure 2.
Increasing global energy consumption,
especially through the use of fossil fuels, leads to
increased emissions of harmful substances such
as carbon dioxide, nitrogen oxides, and sulfur
oxides into the atmosphere, resulting in global
climate change and air pollution. These
emissions are the main cause of the greenhouse
effect, which leads to dramatic climate change,
as well as deterioration of air quality, human
health, and ecosystems. In addition, the
extraction and use of fossil fuels can also lead to
the pollution of water resources, soil, and the
ecological destruction of natural animal habitats.
These negative effects underscore the need to
develop sustainable and clean energy sources as
well as improve energy efficiency to reduce
overall energy consumption and environmental
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harm (Khan, Zakari, Dagar & Singh, 2022;
Al-Shetwi, 2022; Adebayo et al., 2023). Figure
3.
Global energy consumption, which is provided
by the fuel and energy complex (FEC), strongly
influences climate change, especially global
warming. Emissions of greenhouse gases such as
carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrogen oxide,
which are emitted during the extraction,
transportation, production, and combustion of
fossil fuels, lead to an increase in these gases in
the atmosphere. This in turn leads to an increase
in Earth's surface temperature and climatic
changes such as area droughts, area floods,
changes in the world's oceans, etc. Global
warming can also destroy ecosystems and
threaten human health. Therefore, it is becoming
increasingly important to reduce greenhouse gas
emissions and switch to renewable energy
sources (Colgan & Hinthorn, 2023; Ballal,
Cavalett, Cherubini & Watanabe, 2023; He,
Khan, Ozturk & Murshed, 2023). Figure 4.
Figure 1. Growth dynamics of specific energy consumption (kWh/person)
Source: Our World in Data (2023a)
Figure 2. Global energy consumption growth in absolute units (TWh)
Source: Our World in Data (2023a)
Figure 3. Dynamics of carbon dioxide emissions increase.
Source: Our World in Data (2023b)
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Figure 4. Evidence of Climate Change: The Dynamics to Increase Global Temperature on the Planet
(Actual and Projected Figures)
Source: Berkeley Earth (2021)
The problem of climate change has forced the
world community to take action. International
agreements to reduce greenhouse gas emissions
have been signed to combat climate change.
One such agreement is the Kyoto Protocol,
adopted in 1997. It provided for a 5.2% reduction
in greenhouse gas emissions by 2012 compared
to 1990 levels. However, the U.S. did not join the
agreement, and some countries, including
Russia, withdrew from it after the first period. In
2015, the Paris Agreement was signed, in which
more than 190 countries agreed to reduce
greenhouse gas emissions and set a goal of
limiting global temperature growth to no more
than 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial
levels. Each country must develop its own
national action plan to achieve this goal. Various
international organizations and programs, such
as the Global Environment Facility, Green
Climate Fund, and Carbon Disclosure Project,
have also been created to support and encourage
efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and
switch to cleaner technologies. Despite this,
reducing greenhouse gas emissions remains a
pressing issue, as many countries continue to
depend on energy sources that significantly
pollute the environment. A number of countries
have now adopted policies to reduce man-made
gas emissions, Net Zero (Cheng, Luo, Jenkins &
Larson, 2023; Wang et al., 2023; Groves,
Santosh & Zhang, 2023). Figure 5.
Figure 5. Current status of countries in relation to Net Zero policy.
Source: Our World in Data (2023b)
Considering the growing problem of climate
change and the growing awareness of the need to
reduce greenhouse gas emissions, the global
community has come to the conclusion that
energy from fossil sources must be gradually
replaced by energy from renewable sources.
Renewable sources are defined as energy sources
that use endless natural resources, such as solar,
wind, hydropower, geothermal energy, and
others. These energy sources reduce dependence
on fossil fuels, reduce greenhouse gas emissions
and reduce the environmental impact. In
addition, the use of renewable energy sources
allows for a more stable energy future and
reduces the geopolitical risks associated with the
extraction and transportation of fossil fuels.
Many countries are currently developing and
implementing programs to transition to
renewable energy, and this is an important step in
combating climate change (Sayed et al., 2023;
Siddik et al., 2023; Hossain et al., 2023). Figure
6 - Figure 8.
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Figure 6. Dynamics of the global energy balance.
Source: Our World in Data (2023a)
Figure 7. The dynamics of specific energy consumption from renewable energy sources (kWh/person)
Source: Our World in Data (2023a)
Figure 8. Dynamics of global energy consumption from renewable sources in absolute units (TWh)
Source: Our World in Data (2023a)
The issue of nuclear power raises mixed
reactions in the global community. On the one
hand, nuclear power is considered one of the
most environmentally friendly energy sources
that do not produce greenhouse gases. In
addition, this energy is relatively cheap and
provides a high level of reliability of electricity
supply. On the other hand, the risks of nuclear
accidents, including the 1986 Chernobyl disaster,
raise serious safety concerns. In addition, the
issue of disposal of radioactive waste, which has
retained its radioactivity for thousands of years,
is a problem for many countries. Despite these
concerns, many countries continue to use nuclear
power, while others are trying to reduce their
dependence on it in favor of renewable energy
sources. Consequently, the global community
continues to debate the future of nuclear power
and tries to find the best balance between its
potential benefits and risks (Sadiq et al., 2023;
Simionescu, 2023, Chen, Jiang, Wang, & Wang,
2023) Figure 9.
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Figure 9. Dynamics of nuclear power development
Source: Our World in Data (2023a)
The Covid-19 pandemic has had a significant
impact on the global fuel and energy complex.
Measures to control the spread of the virus have
reduced energy consumption in many countries,
leading to a drop in oil and gas prices and a
reduction in energy production and extraction.
At the same time, the crisis caused an increase in
investment in renewable energy and stimulated
the development of new technologies, such as
digitalization and energy storage technology. In
addition, the pandemic has caused changes in
consumer habits, such as an increase in the
proportion of working from home and a decrease
in travel, which has also affected energy demand
(Gollakota & Shu, 2023; Alam et al., 2023;
Bhattacharya & Bose, 2023) Figure 10.
Figure 10. Assessing the impact of pandemic restrictions in the short and long term.
Source: WEF (2020)
Thus, the analysis of open sources data allows us
to draw conclusions about the main drivers of the
current and future development of the economic
sector of the fuel and energy complex (Figure
11):
1. First Rank Drivers - Reasons:
a. Emission of man-made gases into the
environment.
b. Global climate change.
c. Pandemic Constraints.
d. The global economic crisis.
e. Nuclear power.
f. Armed aggression and military conflicts.
2. Second-order drivers - solutions:
a. Renewable energy, energy conservation,
energy efficiency.
b. Decarbonization Policy and Net Zero.
c. International agreements in the field of
energy cooperation.
d. Monitoring and management.
e. Sanctions against aggressor countries.
3. Third rank drivers - monitoring, analysis,
forecasts (interrelated actions affecting the
functioning and development of the
financial sector of the FEC):
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a. Investments in renewable energy and Net
Zero technology.
b. Investments in modernization, research and
digitalization of the energy sector.
c. Investments in energy markets.
The presented driver system (Figure 11) contains
a wide nomenclature of factors and aspects of
functioning and development of the financial
sector of the fuel and energy complex, while
setting the most probable trends of development
of the financial sector of the global fuel and
energy complex based on expert opinions and
forecasts of the previously defined expert
environment (Table 1).
Figure 11. System of drivers for the functioning and development of the financial sector of the fuel and
energy complex
Source: Created by the authors
In particular, investment analysts and forecasts,
such as the IEA (Figure 12), IRENA (Figure 13), WEF (Figure 14), OECD (Figure 15), IMF
(Figure 16), etc.
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Figure 12. IEA Energy Investment Analysis
Source: IEA (2023a)
Figure 13. Energy investment analysis from IRENA
Source: IRENA (2023)
Figure 14. Energy investment analysis from WEF
Source: WEF (2023)
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Figure 15. OECD Energy Investment Analysis
Source: OECD (2023)
Figure 16. IMF Energy Investment Analysis
Source: IMF (2023)
Each of the expert organizations, such as IEA,
IRENA, WEF, OECD, IMF, UN, WB, EBRD,
EIA, EU, has its own unique approach to the
analysis and assessment of the functioning and
development of the financial sector of the fuel
and energy complex. Each organization defines
its priority aspects and investment flows, which
will determine the subsequent development of
the subject area and form analytical proposals
regarding the short-term and long-term prospects
of the financial sector and the FEC as a whole.
This creates multiple perspectives on the
development of the financial sector and the FEC
and provides a multifaceted approach to solving
the problems associated with them. It also helps
expert organizations and governments develop
more effective strategies and action plans to meet
global climate, energy and sustainable
development goals.
Based on the data of expert opinions and
forecasts let's make a rating of likely drivers of
development Table 2, Figure 17.
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Table 2.
Comprehensive analysis of expert ratings of investment drivers for the development of the financial sector
of the global fuel and energy complex.
IEA
IRENA
WEF
OECD
IMF
UN
WB
EBRD
EIA
EU
Median rating
Rank
Number of times top 1
Number of times top 2
Number of times top 3
Number of times top-4
Number of times top 5
Relative investment rating
Solar
photovoltaic
module
1
1
2
7
6
1
9
1
2
2
1
1
4
3
0
0
0
52,0
Wind turbine
(offshore and
onshore)
2
2
3
8
7
2
10
2
3
3
2
1
0
4
3
0
0
35,0
Hydrogeneration
3
3
5
9
8
3
11
3
4
4
3
1
0
0
4
2
1
23,7
Nuclear power
4
20
1
1
5
20
1
6
1
5
1
1
4
0
0
1
2
44,0
Energy
efficiency and
other end uses
5
6
4
11
12
8
13
7
5
6
5
2
0
0
0
1
2
4,0
Digitalization of
the financial
sector of the fuel
and energy
complex
6
15
6
12
16
10
12
8
6
7
6
1
0
0
0
0
0
3,3
Development of
energy networks
and storage
facilities
7
16
7
13
15
11
14
9
7
8
7
1
0
0
0
0
0
2,9
Closed-cycle
industrial
solutions
8
19
10
14
13
12
15
15
8
13
8
1
0
0
0
0
0
2,5
Low-carbon
fuels and carbon
capture
technologies
9
17
11
15
14
9
16
10
9
9
9
1
0
0
0
0
0
2,2
Lithium-ion
battery
10
7
8
16
17
13
7
11
10
10
10
4
0
0
0
0
0
0,5
Electric
Transportation
11
8
9
17
18
14
8
12
11
11
11
4
0
0
0
0
0
0,5
Oil and gas
production
12
9
12
2
1
16
2
16
17
1
12
6
2
2
0
0
0
3,3
Production of
electricity from
fossil fuels
13
12
14
6
3
17
4
17
18
12
12
4
0
0
1
1
0
1,7
Coal mining
14
11
15
4
4
18
3
18
20
14
14
5
0
0
1
2
0
1,7
Oil and Gas
Refining
15
10
13
3
2
19
5
19
19
15
19
8
0
1
1
0
1
1,1
Reduced natural
gas terminals
16
18
16
5
11
15
6
20
12
16
16
6
0
0
0
0
1
0,4
Geothermal
energy
17
4
17
10
9
4
17
5
13
17
17
7
0
0
0
2
1
0,9
Bioenergy and
Green Gas
18
5
19
18
10
5
18
4
14
18
18
6
0
0
0
1
2
0,9
Other natural
solutions
19
13
20
20
19
6
19
13
15
20
19
5
0
0
0
0
0
0,2
Solid and liquid
waste
management
20
14
18
19
20
7
20
14
16
19
20
8
0
0
0
0
0
0,1
Source: Created by the author based on expert data
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Figure 17. Determination of investment drivers of the global FEC financial sector development by the
relative expert rating parameter
Source: Created by the author based on expert data
Based on the analysis of expert ratings and the
formation of a median relative rating (Table 2,
Figure 17), the correlation with the pre-
established system of drivers for the functioning
and development of the financial sector of the
fuel and energy complex has been established
(Figure 12). According to the results presented
(Table 2, Figure 17), it was found that the
surveyed expert environment highlights
renewable and nuclear energy as a leader of
investment attractiveness, indicating a gradual
departure of the global community from the
fossil hydrocarbon energy source to a more
environmentally friendly and sustainable energy
supply. Investment trends determined as a result
of the analysis of expert opinions, conclusions
and forecasts directly affecting the functioning
and development of the financial sector of the
global FEC (Figure 12, Table 2, Figure 17), not
only correlate with the views of the scientific
community (regarding the prevalence of
investment attractiveness for renewable energy -
Laureti, Massaro, Costantiello & Leogrande,
2023; Kumar et al., 2023; Li et al, 2023; and
regarding the significant potential and impact on
the FEC of the future of nuclear power -
Golgovici et al., 2023; Rehm, 2023; Bistline et
al., 2023), but also share a tendency to bias with
the projections of leading international energy
organizations. Figure 18.
Figure 18. Analytical forecast regarding the reduction of fossil fuels in the investment balance of the
financial sector of the FEC until 2050
Source: IEA (2023b)
52,0 35,0
23,7
44,0
4,0
3,3
2,9
2,5
2,2
0,5
0,5
3,3
1,7
1,7
1,1
0,4
0,9
0,9 0,20,1
0,1
1,0
10,0
100,0
Solar photovoltaic module
Wind turbine (offshore and…
Hydrogeneration
Nuclear power
Energy efficiency and other…
Digitalization of the…
Development of energy…
Closed-cycle industrial…
Low-carbon fuels and…
Lithium-ion battery
Electric Transportation
Oil and gas production
Production of electricity…
Coal mining
Oil and Gas Refining
Reduced natural gas terminals
Geothermal energy
Bioenergy and Green Gas
Other natural solutions
Solid and liquid waste…
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However, a comprehensive analysis (Figure 12,
Table 2, Figure 18) allows us to draw specialized
conclusions:
1. There is a clustering of investment drivers of
the functioning and development of the
financial sector of the global FEC, in
particular, it is possible to identify the
following clusters (Table 2, Figure 18)
(Table 3):
a. Efficient renewable energy (rank 1).
b. Nuclear power (rank 1).
c. Modernization of classical energy (rank 1,
2).
d. Decarbonization of classical energy (rank 1,
2).
e. Modernization of energy use (rank 4).
f. Fossil energy sources (rank 5 - 8).
g. Low-efficiency renewable energy and
biotechnology (rank 7, 8).
h. Cycle of full use of resources and materials
(rank 8).
2. There is a chronometric divergence of the
highlighted cluster groups with a gradual
withdrawal of the fossil sources cluster and
a large development of the renewable and
nuclear energy cluster (Figure 19).
Table 3.
Clustering of investment drivers for the functioning and development of the financial sector of the global
FEC.
Cluster
Composition of the cluster
Median
rating
Rank
a. Efficient renewable energy
Solar photovoltaic module
1
1
Wind turbine (offshore and onshore)
2
1
Hydrogeneration
3
1
b. Nuclear power
Nuclear power
1
1
c. Modernization of classical energy
Energy efficiency and other end uses
5
2
Digitalization of the financial sector of the fuel and
energy complex
6
1
Development of energy networks and storage facilities
7
1
Closed-cycle industrial solutions
8
1
d. Decarbonization of classical energy
Low-carbon fuels and carbon capture technologies
9
1
e. Modernization of energy use
Lithium-ion battery
10
4
Electric Transportation
11
4
f. Fossil energy sources
Oil and gas production
12
6
Production of electricity from fossil fuels
12
4
Coal mining
14
5
Oil and Gas Refining
19
8
Reduced natural gas terminals
16
6
g. Low-efficiency renewable energy
and biotechnology
Geothermal energy
17
7
Bioenergy and Green Gas
18
6
Other natural solutions
19
5
h. Cycle of full use of resources and
materials
Solid and liquid waste management
20
8
Source: Created by the authors
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Figure 19. Chronometric divergence of selected cluster groups with the gradual withdrawal of the fossil
sources cluster and the large development of the renewable and nuclear energy cluster.
Source: Created by the authors
Conclusions
Thus, an analysis of expert opinions and
forecasts by leading international organizations
shows that in the coming years the financial
sector of the global fuel and energy complex will
continue the transition to investing in renewable
energy and reducing dependence on fossil
sources. However, the global community
remains divided about the future of nuclear
power, which could become one of the
alternative solutions to reduce the carbon
footprint. Overall, an analysis of expert opinions
and forecasts demonstrates that the financial
sector of the global FEC will continue to adapt to
changing environmental requirements and risk
factors, given the trend toward sustainability and
responsibility in investment decisions. Despite
the general trend of increasing investment in
renewable energy, there are regional differences
in the attractiveness of different clusters. For
example, in some regions of the world, such as
the Middle East, there is still a high demand for
fossil energy, while in other regions, such as
Europe, there is a shift to renewables.
In addition, it can be noted that the effectiveness
of investment in different clusters can vary
significantly depending on a number of factors,
such as technological progress, regulatory
measures, political stability, and other factors.
Therefore, continuous monitoring and analysis of
the market is necessary to make informed
decisions about investing in different clusters.
The benefits of using the results of the clustering
of investment drivers of the functioning and
development of the financial sector of the global
FEC can be different.
First, this clustering can be used for decision-
making in the field of investment in the FEC,
allowing the selection of the most promising
areas of development and reducing the risks of
investing in less promising sectors.
Secondly, the results of clustering can be used to
determine the priority areas of national FEC
development and the formation of strategies and
programs for the development of this industry.
Third, clustering can be used as a tool to identify
trends and prospects in the global energy industry
and shape international cooperation strategies.
Finally, the results of this clustering can be used
to more accurately predict the future
development of the FEC and financial sector,
which can help improve the quality of decision-
making and reduce risks for businesses and
investors. For further study and analysis of the
functioning and development of the financial
sector of the global FEC, it is possible to use
more diverse research methods, such as expert
evaluations, multiple regression analyses, cluster
analysis and other statistical methods.
It is also possible to consider various aspects that
may affect the functioning and development of
the financial sector of the fuel and energy
complex, such as political, economic and social
factors. It is important to take into account the
interdisciplinary nature of the subject of research
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and the involvement of specialists in different
fields of knowledge for a more complete
analysis.
In addition, it should be considered that the
global FEC and financial sector are dynamic and
constantly changing areas, so it is necessary to
regularly update and revise the results and
forecasts obtained in order to monitor changes
and adapt to them. This can help to form more
accurate and timely analytical recommendations
and suggestions for investors and participants in
the financial sector of the FEC.
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