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DOI: https://doi.org/10.34069/AI/2022.53.05.13
How to Cite:
Litvin, I., Fesenko, M., Hurman, O., Nahorniak, H., & Kuzmenko, O. (2022). Forecast-planning system of financial support for the
development of industrial enterprises. Amazonia Investiga, 11(53), 132-145. https://doi.org/10.34069/AI/2022.53.05.13
Forecast-planning system of financial support for the development of
industrial enterprises
Прогнозно-планова система фінансового забезпечення розвитку промислових
підприємств
Received: February 14, 2022 Accepted: April 10, 2022
Written by:
Inna Litvin59
https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1748-5537
Maryna Fesenko60
https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2288-3388
Olena Hurman61
https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9415-2635
Halina Nahorniak62
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5446-2417
Оksana Kuzmenko63
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6141-5774
Abstract
The aim of the article is to develop a forecast-
planned system of financial support for
enterprise development based on approaches to
forecasting factors influencing the need for
financial resources to ensure enterprise
development and planning financial support for
enterprise development. In order to ensure high-
quality and accurate forecasting of external and
internal environmental factors necessary for
further planning and the possibility of sound
planning, the system has formed forecasting and
planning modules. Based on the structure of the
forecasting module with the identification of key
factors influencing the financial security of the
enterprise and comparing the most effective
forecasting methods, an approach to forecasting
factors influencing the need for financial
resources in ensuring the development of
agricultural machinery. The forecasting module
is built by combining quantitative forecasting
methods based on the approximation of existing
trends with quantitative and qualitative
approaches based on expert assessments. Based
on a combination of balance, calculation-
analytical and program-target planning and
formalization of the choice of the date of the
59
PhD, Associate Professor of Kyiv Agrarian Institute of the National Academy of Agrarian Sciences of Ukraine, Kyiv,Ukraine.
60
Doctor of Economics, Professor of Classic Private University, Zaporizhzhya, Ukraine.
61
Ph.D. of Pedagogical Sciences, Associate Professor of Department of Marketing and Management, Khmelnitskyi Cooperative
Trade and Economic Institute, Khmelnitskyi, Ukraine.
62
PhD, Associate Professor of Ternopil Ivan Puluj’s National Technical University, Ternopil, Ukraine.
63 Associate Professor of Theoretical and Applied Economics, State University of Infrastructure and Technology, Kyiv, Ukraine.
Litvin, I., Fesenko, M., Hurman, O., Nahorniak, H., Kuzmenko, O. / Volume 11 - Issue 53: 132-145 / May, 2022
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beginning of measures to manage financial
security depending on the importance of the
event, an approach to planning financial support
for enterprise development. In the planning
module, the external element in relation to the
financial management system is the goal-setting
system of the enterprise, which determines the
mission and its goals in the areas of development.
Approbation of the forecast-planning system at
PJSC "Harvesters" was carried out. The results
would be useful for practitioners, for the
effective implementation of sustainable planning
and forecasting of enterprise resources in
accordance with the objectives of its
development.
Keywords: planning, forecasting, system,
financial support, enterprise development,
resources, agricultural engineering.
Introduction
The first stage of managing the financial security
of the enterprise is to assess the prospects for
further development by forecasting and building
development plans based on them. A feature of
agricultural machinery enterprises is the close
relationship with the agricultural sector, which is
the main consumer of specialized engineering
products. The development of agriculture in
Ukraine, due to both land reform and the growth
of world demand for food, determines the
importance of forecasting the domestic market of
agricultural machinery. At the same time, the
development of agriculture in third world
countries, for which the price factor of
agricultural machinery is important, necessitates
forecasting foreign markets in order to expand
domestic machine-building enterprises. All these
global forecasts in terms of financial
management of agricultural machinery
eventually turn into forecasts of the need for
financial resources for any industrial enterprise.
The aim of the article is to develop a forecast-
planned system of financial support for
enterprise development based on approaches to
forecasting factors that affect the needs for
financial resources in ensuring enterprise
development and planning financial support for
enterprise development.
The problem is proposed to be solved by a
combination of quantitative forecasting methods
based on the approximation of existing trends
with quantitative and qualitative approaches
based on expert assessments.
In the forecasting modules of the forecast-
planned management system of financial support
of the agricultural machinery enterprise it is
offered to carry out forecasting on three groups
of forecasts:
forecasting the factors influencing the demand
for agricultural machinery and equipment;
forecasting factors that affect the cost of financial
resources;
forecasting the factors influencing the needs of
the agricultural machinery enterprise in financial
resources.
Forecasting of factors influencing the needs of
agricultural machinery in financial resources
consists of forecasting the labor market and
markets of raw materials, as well as assessing
scenarios of equipment upgrades, scenarios of
technology improvement, estimating the cost of
reengineering business processes, estimating the
cost of staff training. Forecasting of labor
markets, materials, raw materials, et al. is
proposed to be carried out using classical
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extrapolation models and methods of cyclical
research to identify the impact of long economic
waves. It is also advisable to use correlation-
regression analysis to establish relationships
between market development indicators and their
impact on the performance of the machine-
building enterprise.
In turn, the evaluation of scenarios of equipment
modernization, costs of business process
reengineering, staff training costs is proposed to
be carried out through expert methods through
interviews, ie surveys of internal experts and
external contractors who provide relevant
services. Evaluations of technology
improvement scenarios should be carried out
using a set of technology forecasting methods
(forecasting by analogy, growth curves,
component forecasts).
All these global forecasts in terms of financial
management of agricultural machinery
eventually turn into forecasts of the need for
financial resources for any industrial enterprise.
Based on the analysis of existing concepts on
approaches to forecasting and planning of
financial support of enterprise development
(section "Theoretical Framework or Literature
Review", in the section "Methodology" the
composition of forecasting and planning modules
in the forecast-planning system of financial
support of agricultural engineering development
and their sequence The section is divided into
two parts, in the first part based on the structure
of the forecasting module with the identification
of key factors that affect the financial security of
the enterprise and comparing the most effective
forecasting methods, developed an approach to
forecasting factors affecting financial resource
needs In the second, on the basis of a
combination of balance, calculation-analytical
and program-target planning and formalization
of the choice of the start date of measures to
manage financial security Depending on the
importance of the event, an approach to planning
financial support for enterprise development has
been developed.
In the section "Results and discussion" the results
of approbation of the forecast-planning system at
PJSC "Harvesters" are presented.
Theoretical Framework or Literature Review
In the general sense, the issue of forecasting and
planning of financial resources of enterprises is
sufficiently developed, but not enough attention
is paid to the development of methods for
quantitative forecasting and justification of
future needs of enterprises in financial resources.
The purpose of article Jianxiong Lin, (2021) is to
provide a complex embedded system analysis of
early warning systems and their development and
use in a variety of environments, especially in the
economic and financial fields. The aim of the
article is to provide a comprehensive built-in
system analysis of early warning systems and
their development and use in various
environments, especially in the economic and
financial spheres.
Tarasova H et al., (2021) an approach to
forecasting crisis phenomena in management,
including taking into account risks, has been
developed (TarasovaH et al., 2018).
Reshetnyak, T.V. (2016), Reshetnyak,
Ivchenkova and Krykunenko (2017) proposed a
system for forecasting the financial condition of
the enterprise, which is based on establishing the
dynamics of the liquidity ratio and using Markov
processes to build trajectories for the financial
condition of the enterprise. Without denying the
prospects of this approach, it should be noted that
the financial condition of the enterprise is a
broader concept than just liquidity. In addition,
the issue of impacts on the financial condition
was left out, ie what financial resources and
financial security are needed to overcome the
negative trends.
Yuskevich Ilya et al., (2021) proposes a novel
model-based approach to technology planning
and roadmapping, consisting of two
complementary steps: technology forecasting
and game-theoretic planning. The inherent
uncertainty of target technology performances,
timelines and risks impact the roadmapping
process. Reducing this uncertainty is a major
challenge and allows elaborating different
options and scenarios. This paper proposes a new
approach to technological planning and roadmap
based on a model consisting of two
complementary steps: technological forecasting
and planning with game theory. Internal
uncertainty of technological targets, deadlines
and risks affects the roadmap process. Reducing
this uncertainty is a major challenge and allows
different options and scenarios to be developed.
Features of enterprise planning are considered by
Moskalenko, K.I. (2015, 2016) which proposed
economic and mathematical models (Hroznyi et
al., 2018) for forecasting demand and planning
production volumes, as well as the main
approaches to strategic planning, which can be
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used at the machine-building enterprise. It should
be noted that the proposed forecasting models are
based on different options for approximating the
existing trend, ie do not take into account the
possibility of changing the trend and the
emergence of influential factors that did not exist
before.
Abdoulmohammad Gholamzadeh Chofreh et al.,
(2020) the concept of sustainable enterprise
resource planning systems is substantiated, and
special attention is focused on the aspect of
system implementation, namely on the proposal
of the general plan, which can direct practitioners
to the implementation of sustainable enterprise
resource planning systems.
In a study by Feng Shen et al., (2020) takes into
account two key characteristics of financial
disaster data: unbalanced datasets and drift data
flow concepts. This is made possible by the
proposed DFDF approach and the adaptive
approach of the SMOTE Recursive
Neighborhood Ensemble (ANS-REA), which
provides numerous forecast results from
unbalanced data flows.
In the article Yin Yang, et al., (2021) investigated
the mechanism of influence of the financial joint
service regime on the competitive advantages of
enterprises.
In the article Yubing Yu, et al., (2021) developed
a conceptual model that captures the relationship
between supply chain capital and financial
performance of an enterprise.
Jeffrey Cheah research et al., (2019) created a
basis for the study of the most significant
external resources (ie financial and training
support), which were mediated by official
business planning, for the financial activities of
enterprises.
Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) has been a
major advancement in production planning and
control (PPC), building on material requirements
planning (MRP) and manufacturing resource
planning (MRP II) (Cornelis & Strandhagen,
2018; Syreyshchikova et al., 2020).
Johannes Cornelis de Man and Jan Ola
Strandhagen (2018) describe cases where
different decisions on capacity planning and
production planning are supported by
spreadsheets. At the same time, they do not have
a continuation in the form of research in the
economic and managerial sphere, ie the
development of measures to target the
development of enterprises, assess the necessary
resources, including financial, forecasting other
components that affect development, other than
operational needs enterprises.
M. Damaskin (2014) proposed to carry out
financial planning at the machine-building
enterprise with division into three types of
budgets - operating (production budget),
investment (fixed assets budget) and financial
(working capital budget). Moreover, the
formation of all these budgets should be carried
out with the optimization of the target function of
the final financial results and with restrictions on
the level of financial stability. It should be noted
that the developed model of optimization of
financial plans focuses on the operating budget.
In addition, although it was stated that financial
planning was based on the strategic plan of
enterprise development, this was not reflected in
the target function.
In the study of G.G. Mikhalchenko (2015)
considered the features of strategic planning,
including financial, for machine-building
enterprises, and proposed to implement it on the
basis of SWOT-analysis. This determines the
probability and importance of events that affect
the plans of the machine-building enterprise, as
well as builds a matrix with the strengths and
weaknesses of the enterprise and opportunities
and threats in terms of financial stabilization. It
is argued that financial development should be
based on indicators such as product profitability,
profit sharing policy, financing policy and asset
formation. It should be noted that in the aspect of
financial management of agricultural machinery
development this approach cannot be used due to
the lack of consideration of domestic enterprises
producing agricultural products, as well as the
lack of connection of financial development
indicators with overall development and
justification of needs. financial security
depending on environmental factors.
To effectively implement the sustainable
development initiative, organizations need to
integrate data, information and processes from all
sustainable business functions into a
consolidated database. This process of
integration Abdoulmohammad Gholamzadeh
Chofrehet al. (2018a) propose to implement the
Sustainable Resource Planning System (S-ERP),
which allows practitioners to centralize all
sustainable business activities of the organization
into a single system so that they can monitor their
sustainability.
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In the study by Abdoulmohammad Gholamzadeh
Chofrehet al., (2018b) proposes an assessment of
the structure of S-ERP using peer review
methods.
Karachyna, N.P., Grebenyok, I.V.,
Lazarchuk, O.V. (2014) studied the development
trends of agricultural engineering in Ukraine,
identified external competitors in the field of
agricultural engineering, identified the main
problems of the industry and developed
conclusions on the growth of demand for
domestic agricultural enterprises mechanical
engineering under the condition of realization of
the state investment projects. At the same time,
the conclusions are general, without specifying in
the form of quantitative values of indicators that
affect the development of machine-building
enterprises and without developing the necessary
methodological support for regular forecasting of
prospects for agricultural machinery.
G.V, Klymyk (2014) analyzed the development
trends of agricultural machinery in terms of
foreign economic activity, arguing that the main
obstacles to the development of machine-
building enterprises producing agricultural
products are lack of investment, high
depreciation of fixed assets, use of obsolete
equipment and technologies, high cost of credit
resources. As a result, domestic enterprises have
insufficient competitiveness, non-compliance
with international quality standards, have an
insufficient range of products. In general, the
conclusions about the low profitability and high
cost of attracting financial resources for
modernization of production confirm the
importance of financial management. But further
conclusions and developments on methods of
financial management of agricultural machinery
in modern conditions are not given.
Also, the study of trends in Ukrainian
agricultural engineering in terms of integration
into world markets was carried out in the work of
S.O, Mashchenko and O.V, Ivanyuk (2018). It is
concluded that domestic demand for agricultural
machinery products is met by imports of Western
machinery, both new and used, and domestic
enterprises mostly do not provide products of the
required quality and with the characteristics
required by domestic farmers. At the same time,
the industry has prospects both within the
country and in the export of its products. As in
other studies, this does not pay attention to
methods of forecasting the factors that affect the
need for financial security for individual
enterprises.
Thus, we can conclude that despite the popularity
of planning in the industrial enterprise, there are
no studies that would consider the features of
forecasting and financial planning in the
agricultural machinery industry and which would
develop a system of methods to justify financial
indicators needed for machine building
development. enterprises. There are also no
studies on the relationship between the planned
financial indicators and the indicators of
development of the industrial enterprise as a
whole.
Methodology
Development of forecast-planned system of
financial support for the development of
agricultural machinery enterprises that would
meet the following requirements:
to provide forecasting of the factors of internal
and external environment influencing needs in
financial resources of the enterprise of
agricultural mechanical engineering;
to provide planning of expenses of the machine-
building enterprise producing agricultural
products on directions of development;
take into account the peculiarities of the
transformation of technological systems and the
development of the information economy;
based on formalized methods of forecasting and
planning that allow to investigate the sequence
and justification of management decisions.
When building a forecasting module in the
forecast-planning system of financial support for
the development of agricultural machinery
enterprises it is necessary to combine methods of
quantitative forecasting based on approximation
of existing trends with quantitative-qualitative
approaches based on expert assessments. This is
due to the peculiarities of the subject area,
because not all indicators that need forecasting
have a sufficient statistical base, and there are
indicators that are irregular and dependent on
poorly formalized phenomena and processes.
Therefore, these indicators can only be analyzed
using a sufficient pool of expert assessments are
shown in Figure 1.
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Figure 1. Forecasting module in the forecast-planning system of financial support of agricultural machinery
enterprises.
In general, the forecasting module of the
forecast-planned financial management system
of the agricultural machinery enterprise proposes
to make forecasts for three groups of forecasts:
forecasting the factors influencing the demand
for agricultural machinery and equipment;
forecasting factors that affect the cost of financial
resources;
forecasting the factors influencing the needs of
the agricultural machinery enterprise in financial
resources.
The result of processing these groups of forecasts
is the conclusions on the forecasting of financial
support for the development of agricultural
machinery.
In turn, forecasting the factors influencing the
demand for agricultural machinery and
equipment includes forecasting the factors of
internal and external demand and forecasting the
satisfaction of aggregate demand from new
products or from used machinery and equipment.
The main factors for forecasting are:
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expected yields and world food prices, which
directly affect the need and ability of agricultural
enterprises to purchase machinery;
the quality of the company's products in
comparison with the world's leading
manufacturers, which is associated with the
possibility of entering foreign markets;
profitability of agricultural producers and the
hryvnia exchange rate, which affect the
possibility of purchasing new modern
equipment;
expected customs barriers and promising food
crops that influence decisions to purchase used
machinery (for example, almost half of grain
harvesters sold in Ukraine are used, while for
tractors this share is much lower).
For each group of factors it is advisable to use
appropriate forecasting methods are shown in
Table 1.
Table 1.
Methods of forecasting the demand for agricultural machinery products.
Directions of forecasting
Key factors
Forecasting methods
Internal demand
Yields, world food prices
Trend extrapolation models,
correlation-regression analysis,
seasonality research methods,
external forecasts
External demand
The quality of the company's
products in comparison with the
world's leading manufacturers
Expert assessments through
questionnaires
Satisfaction of demand at the
expense of new products of
agricultural engineering
Profitability of agricultural
producers, hryvnia exchange rate
Trend extrapolation models,
correlation-regression analysis
Satisfaction of demand due to
used agricultural machinery
Customs barriers, promising food
crops
Expert assessments using
analytical notes
Source: own research
Forecasting the factors influencing the cost of
attracting financial resources for manufacturers
of agricultural machinery and equipment, as well
as the cost of lending to consumers of such
machinery consists of forecasting factors costing
short-term financial resources, forecasting
factors costing long-term financial resources,
assessing the feasibility of own financial
resources are shown in Table 2.
Table 2.
Methods of forecasting the cost of attracting financial resources.
Directions of forecasting
Key factors
Forecasting methods
The cost of short-term financial
resources
Rates of short-term bank loans
Trend extrapolation models,
correlation-regression analysis
Cost of attracting long-term
financial resources
Rates of long-term bank loans,
the cost of raising capital
through the placement of
securities
Trend extrapolation models,
correlation-regression analysis
Expediency of using own
financial resources
Bank deposit rates, profitability
of financial instruments,
primarily IGLBs
Expert assessments through
questionnaires, expert
assessments using analytical
notes, financial flow models
Source: own research
Short-term resources that can attract Ukrainian
machine-building enterprises for development
are bank loans. This is a well-studied subject
area, forecasting should be carried out using
correlation and regression analysis to determine
the impact of enterprise performance on the
perception of banks' lending risks and
extrapolation models to determine overall trends
in the cost of attracting financial resources.
Forecasting long-term financial resources
contains more uncertainties. These can be both
bank loans and the placement of bonds by the
company for borrowing in the financial markets.
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Correlation-regression models in the latter case
allow us to assess the interest of investors in the
company's securities, whether they will be in
demand and at what price they can be placed.
The expediency of using own financial resources
is carried out with the forecasting of alternative
directions, based on expert assessments of
different types and modeling of financial flows
of the enterprise to determine the dynamics of
free own financial resources and possible ways to
use them.
Forecasting the factors influencing the needs of
agricultural machinery in financial resources
consists of forecasting the labor market and
markets for raw materials, as well as assessing
scenarios of equipment upgrades, scenarios of
technology improvement, estimating the cost of
business process reengineering, estimating the
cost of staff training are shown in Table 3.
Table 3.
Methods of forecasting the factors influencing the needs of agricultural machinery enterprises in
financial resources
Directions of forecasting
Key factors
Forecasting methods
Labor market forecasting
Wage growth indices of qualified
specialists in the field of
mechanical engineering
Trend extrapolation models,
correlation-regression analysis
Forecasting raw materials
markets
Price indices for metal, fuel,
electricity
Trend extrapolation models,
correlation-regression analysis,
cyclicity research methods
Evaluation of equipment
modernization scenarios
Price indices for engineering
products
Expert methods through
interviews
Evaluation of technology
improvement scenarios
The cost of patents for
technologies and products
Methods of technology
forecasting
Estimation of business
process reengineering costs
Cost of consulting services
Expert methods through
interviews
Estimation of staff training
costs
Cost of educational courses,
qualification indices of available
staff
Expert methods through
interviews
Source: own research
Forecasting of labor markets, materials, raw
materials, et al. is proposed to be carried out
using classical extrapolation models and methods
of cyclical research to identify the impact of long
economic waves. It is also advisable to use
correlation-regression analysis to establish
relationships between market development
indicators and their impact on the performance of
the machine-building enterprise.
In turn, the evaluation of scenarios of equipment
modernization, costs of business process
reengineering, staff training costs is proposed to
be carried out through expert methods through
interviews, ie surveys of internal experts and
external contractors who provide relevant
services. Evaluations of technology
improvement scenarios should be carried out
using a set of technology forecasting methods
(forecasting by analogy, growth curves,
component forecasts).
Thus, using the developed structure of the
forecasting module in the forecast-planning
system of financial support of agricultural
machinery, based on identifying key factors that
affect the financial security of the company and
comparing the most effective forecasting
methods, the company is able to provide quality
and accurate forecasting of external and internal
factors necessary for further planning.
The planning module forecast-planning system
of financial support for the development of
agricultural machinery enterprises solves
problems related to planning costs in the areas of
development and determining the necessary
financial support are shown in Figure 2.
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The system of goal-setting of agricultural machinery enterprises
Balance planning
Management plan for financial support for the development of agricultural machinery
Establishing a link
between the needs for
financial resources and
their availability
Calculation and analytical
planning Program-targeted planning
Identification of possible
sources for the formation
of financial security
Establishing a link
between development
goals and the required
level of financial security
Establishing links
between financial
security and development
by areas
Building a financial
support plan in dynamics
Development of
schedules for attracting
and spending financial
resources
Hierarchy of
implementation of
financial support plans
Scenarios for financial
support adaptation
Financial support
program
Development mission
Staff development
goals Equipment
development goals Technology
development goals
Goals of business
process
development
Figure 2. Planning module in the forecast-planning system of financial support management of agricultural
machinery enterprises.
In this module, the external element in relation to
the financial management system is the goal-
setting system of the agricultural machinery
enterprise, which determines the mission and
goals of the enterprise in the areas of
development. In terms of development of the
enterprise of agricultural engineering and
management of the necessary financial support,
it is advisable to distinguish the following types
of development:
development of business processes, including
management business processes related to the
collection of information necessary for the
operation of the enterprise, with the introduction
of domestic agricultural machinery to foreign
markets, quality management, improving
consumer performance and competitiveness;
development of equipment, which implies the
renewal of fixed assets for the development of
new products or improvement of traditional
products of the enterprise;
development of technologies necessary for the
functioning of the machine-building enterprise in
modern conditions in compliance with modern
requirements for product quality and
environmental friendliness;
development of personnel who need to master the
latest equipment and modern engineering
technologies.
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It is proposed to plan financial support using
three approaches - balance sheet, calculation-
analytical and program-target.
With the help of balance planning, the
connection between the needs for financial
resources and their availability is established, as
well as the identification of possible sources for
the formation of financial security. At the same
time:
balance of production capacities, which reflects
what capacities are available and which are
necessary for the implementation of the
production program to meet the expected
demand for agricultural machinery and
equipment;
balance of fixed assets, reflecting the
depreciation, disposal and renewal of fixed assets
of agricultural machinery;
cost balance, which reflects the creation of
enterprise revenues by sources of income and
distribution of costs by areas of development,
which allows to assess the importance and
payback of the areas of development of
agricultural machinery;
Calculation and analytical planning is based on
the analysis of the achieved values of the planned
indicator and indices of its change in the planning
period. This method is effective in cases where
there are no clear technical and economic
standards, so the connection should be
established on indirect grounds, by factor
analysis or expert evaluation. Therefore, it is
expedient to use calculation and analytical
planning to establish a link between development
goals and the required level of financial support,
as well as to calculate the strength of the links
between financial support and development of
the machine-building enterprise by areas.
A feature of program-target planning is the
construction of a comprehensive program of
action to achieve goals. At the same time,
measures to manage financial security are
determined, first of all, measures to attract
financial resources and measures to direct
resources to achieve the planned goals. This is
the last stage of planning in the management of
financial support of the agricultural machinery
company, which is the construction of the
financial support plan in the dynamics and the
development of schedules for attracting and
spending financial resources.
A task allocation model is proposed to determine
the start date of the financial security
management task. Each problem Z_k is
characterized by the set:
󰇛
󰇜,
where– weight in the hierarchy of goals of
the k-th task (the more important, the greater the
weight);
– the set of tasks that must be completed
before the k-th task;
- change of financial resources when
performing the k-th task (costs or involvement);
– the start date of the k-th task.
The weight in the hierarchy of goals is
determined depending on the direction of
development to which the event relates and the
mission of the enterprise. The objective function
of the model is:
󰆒 
󰆒 
where – zero start date of the strategy for the
development of agricultural machinery.
A task cannot start earlier than related tasks
where
–task start date
from the set
.
In each planning period, it is necessary that the
income of resources was not less than their costs:
 
where –change of resources due to the
implementation of the i-th task, the start date of
whichis between the start and end dates of the
u-th planning period.
Thus, using the developed structure of the
planning module in the forecast-planning system
of financial management of agricultural
machinery, based on a combination of balance,
calculation-analytical and program-target
planning and formalization of the choice of start
date for financial management depending on the
importance of the event , an agricultural
machine-building enterprise can carry out sound
planning with maximization of compliance of
financial support with the goals of enterprise
development.
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Results and Discussion
Practical approbation of the developed
approaches was carried out at domestic
agricultural machinery enterprises of PJSC
"Berdyansk Harvesters".
The basis of the agricultural machinery market in
Ukraine is occupied by tractors and combines
with harvesters, the share of which in 2019 was
38% and 29%, respectively. All, such as seeders,
livestock machinery, haymaking, tillage and
fertilizers in total do not exceed 33%.
The goals of the general development of PJSC
"Berdyansk Harvesters", set at the level of senior
management, include the development of a new
range of products, reducing costs and expanding
markets. Currently, the main consumers of
Berdyansk Harvesters are domestic enterprises.
At the same time, there is a possible demand in
the markets of Belarus and Kazakhstan, as well
as the potential to enter the Turkish market. The
cost of production of PJSC "Berdyansk
Harvesters" depends on the prices of materials
and components, 75% of the purchase of raw
materials and supplies are purchases of rolled
metal, the rest - components. The suppliers of
components are mostly foreign companies,
suppliers of rolled metal - domestic. But both for
metal and for components, the purchase price
depends on the hryvnia exchange rate. Therefore,
when planning financial support, the hryvnia
exchange rate is one of the main factors. In
addition, it is advisable to forecast the discount
rate of the NBU, which depends on the cost of
lending to both agricultural producers and
directly to agricultural machinery. Forecasts of
the main indicators of environmental factors
influencing the development of PJSC
"Berdyansk Harvesters" are shown in Table. 4.
Table 4.
Forecasts of the main factors of the external environment influencing development of the enterprises of
agricultural mechanical engineering.
Forecast factor
Year
2022
2023
2024
NBU discount rate
5%-10%
5%-8%
5%-8%
Volume of demand for combines, UAH
million
5720
6240
6760
Volume of demand for tractors, UAH million
15600
16380
18200
Volume of demand for attachments, UAH
million
1400
1470
1520
Volume of demand for spare parts for
agricultural machinery and equipment, UAH
million
2300
2340
2370
Prices for rolled metal, thousand UAH / t
23
19
22
Hryvnia exchange rate, UAH / $
26
27
27,5
Source: own research
The development strategy of PJSC "Berdyansk
Harvesters" plans to open offices in other
countries to develop new markets, reduce costs
by improving the procurement system and
expanding the range of products. Belarus,
Kazakhstan and Turkey are planned as countries
to open representative offices. Relations already
exist with these countries, mainly in the supply
of spare parts, but the lack of representative
offices and regular dealers does not allow to use
the full potential of the market. Improving the
procurement system involves long-term planning
of needs for raw materials and their purchase at
minimum prices, in times of cyclical price
reductions and taking into account possible
losses due to the freezing of working capital. The
expansion of the product range involves the
development of new types of attachments for
agricultural combines and tractors. The amount
of costs and deadlines for the implementation of
measures for the development of PJSC
"Berdyansk Harvesters" are shown in Table. 5.
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Table 5.
Planned measures for the development of PJSC "Berdyansk Harvesters".
Direction
Period
Volume of expenses,
thousand UAH
Development of a new market in Belarus
2022
1340
Cost reduction due to long-term planning of
procurement of raw materials and supplies
2022
230
Expansion of the product range
2023
450
Development of a new market in Kazakhstan
2023
1200
Development of a new market in Turkey
2023
1400
Source: own research
To cover development costs and other operating
costs of PJSC "Berdyansk Harvesters" it is
advisable to raise funds in 2022 in the amount of
680 thousand UAH, in 2023 in the amount of 540
thousand UAH, in 2024 raising funds is not
planned, it is expected to cover all costs own
sources.
Thus, due to the forecasting of the main factors
influencing the development of PJSC
"Berdyansk Harvesters" developed a
management plan for the necessary financial
support for development, which corresponds to
the development strategy of the enterprise and
provides the necessary financial resources for all
stages of development.
Conclusions
It is established that in managing the financial
support of agricultural machinery enterprises the
priority is to forecast the external and internal
environment, and the feature of agricultural
machinery enterprises is the close relationship
with the agricultural sector, which is the main
consumer of specialized engineering products.
Global forecasts of agricultural development in
terms of financial management of agricultural
machinery in the information economy
eventually turn into forecasts of the need for
financial resources for the machine-building
enterprise.
It is concluded that there are no studies that
would consider the features of financial planning
in agricultural machinery and which would
develop a system of methods to justify the
financial support required for the development of
machine building in the information economy.
There are also no studies on the relationship
between planned financial indicators and
indicators of development of the agricultural
machinery industry as a whole.
The forecast-planned system of financial support
of development of the enterprises of agricultural
machine-building which carries out forecasting
of the factors of internal and external
environment influencing needs in financial
resources of the enterprise of agricultural
machine-building is developed; provides cost
planning of a machine-building enterprise
producing agricultural products by areas of
development; takes into account the peculiarities
of the transformation of technological systems
and the development of the information
economy; is based on formalized methods of
forecasting and planning that allow to investigate
the sequence and justification of management
decisions. We believe that the forecast-planned
system of financial support for enterprise
development is necessary to coordinate the
management of financial support for
development with the development of the
enterprise and to improve the management
system of the enterprise in general and financial
support in particular.
The approbation of the forecast-planning system
at PJSC " Berdyansk Harvesters" was carried out,
it was suggested to pay attention to the
development of sales. In addition, the segment of
attracting financial resources, which needs to
improve planning, is unsatisfactory. Due to the
forecasting of the main factors influencing the
development of PJSC "Berdyansk Harvesters"
developed a management plan for the necessary
financial support for development, which
corresponds to the development strategy of the
enterprise and provides the necessary financial
resources for all stages of development.
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