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DOI: https://doi.org/10.34069/AI/2022.53.05.2
How to Cite:
Lytvynova, I., Ignatyuk, A., Knir, M., & Liubkina, O. (2022). The impact of the war with Russia on the export/import of Ukraine
and possible tools to restore the Ukrainian economy. Amazonia Investiga, 11(53), 16-25. https://doi.org/10.34069/AI/2022.53.05.2
The impact of the war with Russia on the export/import of Ukraine
and possible tools to restore the Ukrainian economy
Вплив війни з Росією на експорт/імпорт України та можливі інструменти
відновлення української економіки
Received: February 2, 2022 Accepted: March 30, 2022
Written by:
Ievgeniia Lytvynova6
https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5858-1686
Anzhela Ignatyuk7
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9103-6943
Mariya Knir8
https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5591-2814
Olena Liubkina9
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8245-8300
Abstract
The war posed a new challenge to the Ukrainian
economy: how to ensure the recovery of
Ukrainian exports / imports and enable
businesses to recover after the war. The aim of
this study was to identify possible tools of the
customs tariff mechanism that will help
Ukrainian companies to recover and start
working. This study is comparative and
compares the structures of customs and tariff
regulation of the EU and Ukraine, both in pre-
war Ukraine and during the war. A poll
conducted in 2022 shows the attitude of
Ukrainian business to reforms and the
introduction of new instruments of the customs
tariff mechanism. The survey was conducted
among 76 companies engaged in exports and
import, of which 29 have an import component
in their goods. The survey examined the business
response to the introduction of the proposed
innovations in Ukraine. The research
methodology is based on qualitative and
quantitative research methods. This study
proposes ways to improve the customs tariff
mechanism in Ukraine, namely the presentation
of the latest models to improve the existing
customs tariff mechanism, which were
developed in early 2022, and are effective for the
6
PhD in Economic Sciences, Faculty of Economics of Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv, Ukraine.
7
Doctor of Sciences (Economics), Professor of the Department of Economic Theory, Macro- and Microeconomics of the Faculty of
Economics of Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv, Ukraine.
8
PhD in Economic Sciences, Associate Professor of the Department of Finance of the Faculty of Economics of Taras Shevchenko
National University of Kyiv, Ukraine.
9
Doctor of Sciences (Money, finance and credit), Professor of the Department of Finance of the Faculty of Economics of Taras
Shevchenko National University of Kyiv, Ukraine.
Lytvynova, I., Ignatyuk, A., Knir, M., Liubkina, O. / Volume 11 - Issue 53: 16-25 / May, 2022
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recovery of the Ukrainian economy after the war.
This study also includes an analysis of the impact
of the proposed models on the achievement of
sustainable development goals in Ukraine in the
future.
Keywords: export, import, Ukrainian economy,
sustainable development, foreign economic
activity.
Introduction
In addition to the many challenges facing the
Ukrainian economy, namely COVID-19, rising
gas and other energy prices, the war has been
added. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on February
24, 2022, brought a halt to imports of most
commodity categories, as many businesses
suffered physical losses, infrastructure was
damaged, and foreign partners suspended
cooperation with Ukraine due to increased risks.
In this situation, Ukrainian business had to
survive, and do everything possible to save jobs,
the businesses / industries themselves, and the
country itself.
The main ways to restore the economy during the
war, in April 2022, was a reduction in taxes on
imports, benefits were given to small and
medium-sized businesses. Big business has been
left without the long-awaited incentives and must
deal with the situation on its own. According to a
survey of big business, it was revealed what
incentives would be interesting for big players.
The improvements that were proposed were
designed to accelerate the growth of the
Ukrainian economy in the pre-war period and can
be used in the postwar period.
The proposed methods of customs tariff
mechanism were based on a comparison of EU
and Ukrainian import systems in the pre-war
period. A model was proposed, which was based
on the deferral of customs duties, especially
VAT, until the sale of products, and only then
transfer to the budget. According to business, this
would increase the amount of funds that will be
invested by enterprises in business development,
as well as risk diversification and reorientation in
difficult times. The survey was conducted among
76 companies, that confidently stated during the
survey that they were interested in the deferral
tool. This study shows the best way to help
businesses recover quickly in the postwar period.
Literature Review
Analysis of economic tools and strategies of
different countries are the main points to find
right strategy to revive economy of Ukraine.
Especially interesting are research in line of
reforms, crisis, changing a particular policy and
rules of trade between nations. Analysis tried to
catch most countries, to gather different kind of
experience.
Line of reforms was mentioned in research of
Abreo, C., Bustillo, R., & Rodriguez, C. (2022)
in analysis of Colombia's trade liberalization
process for the main aim to boost Colombian
exports. Main part of Colombian exports are raw
materials, like Ukrainian ones. Yan, D., &
Chunding, L. (2021) was analysis reform of
International Trade Governance System in China
with experience in designing and executing
roadmaps to long-term reform. Brown, L.K., &
Troutt, E. (2018) analysis trade and welfare
effects of export subsidies in aspect of
governments continue to enact policies to
promote trade. Medin, H. (2021) analysis why do
firms import via merchants in entrepot countries
rather than directly from the source, that is very
important topic for reforms of Ukraine in line of
EU experience with direct and indirect
international trade. Olha, Y., Stašys, R.,
Tsygankova, T., Reznikova, N., & Uskova, D.
(2021) made an analysis of protectionism sources
of trade due to the COVID-19, peculiarities of
modern intercountry trade disputes, based on
experience of USA, the EU and China disputes,
that is useful for export/import future protection
in Ukraine. Rahul, M., & Gilles, C. (2021)
analysis abnormal pricing in international
commodity trade, like Ukrainian ones. Vural, G.
(2013) analyses asymmetric trade costs. Sidorov,
V. N., & Sidorova, E. V. (2021) concentrated on
trade facilitation in three dimensions: "hard",
"soft" and digital, which includes the use of
information technologies, that widely used in
Ukraine for 2022. Watson, A. (2021) examines
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the impact of trade credit on cyclical fluctuations
in international trade.
Line of crisis was mentioned in research
Aituar, A. (2021) is case of trade sanctions
between Russia and Western countries on
Kazakhstan, that will significantly show
influence for the country that is highly integrated
into the Russian economy. Davis, C.L, &
Pelc, K.J. (2017) analysis self-restraint of trade
protection, research `hard times` and shows that
`international trade rules include provisions that
allow for raising barriers to aid industries when
they suffer economic injury`. Euro integration
questions, especially in war period shows the
necessary to balance the pressures. Davis C.,
Pelc. K `assesses the effect of crises on
cooperation in trade` (Davis, & Pelc, 2017).
Herman, P. R. (2022) analysis possibility of
nondiscriminatory non-tariff trade costs,
research `methods for estimating
nondiscriminatory trade costs exhibit challenges
in terms of data requirements or the ability to
isolate the effects of specific policies`.
Line of changing a particular policy was
mentioned in research Alonso, V. (2021)
analyses the international arms trade that is an
important line of analysis in war period.
Chen, W., & Wang, N. (2022) analysis the rapid
rise of East Asian economies centered on China,
Japan, and South Korea, that show changing
geographies of international trade. Crozet, M.,
Demir, B. & Javorcik, B. (2022) analysis
international trade and letters of credit like an
instrument to restore economy in crises period.
Dluhosch, B, & Horgos, D. (2013) analysis
globalization affects, that shows disaggregated
perspective on trade and `shows that the positive
connotation is concentrated in low-income
countries still in the process of climbing the
income ladder`, that is common to Ukrainian
economy. Galovic, T. (2021) made research
connected to the Association of Southeast Asian
Nations (ASEAN) that `examine the
international competitiveness and trade of
ASEAN member states`. The evaluation of the
competitive position of ASEAN member could
help to evaluate the Ukrainian international trade.
Mišević, P. (2021) made `research is to analyze
the international trade of the EAEU member
states`. ‘The results show openness to foreign
trade and export orientation of the EAEU
member states` and results open the picture of
EAEU.
Line of rules of trade between nations was
mentioned in research Dos Reis, M., Da Silva
Porto, & De Azevedo. (2021) that analysis the
impacts of the World Trade Organization on the
members. Julieta Zelicovich (2022) shows the
discourse in World Trade Organization reform
debates. Ukraine has been a member of the WTO
since 16 May 2008.
Analyzing the above studies, we see that almost
all countries, organizations and processes have
been analyzed, but not in the context of Ukraine.
In the post-war period, Ukraine must create its
own unique tool based on the experience of
developed and developing countries, which will
help the rapid development of the economy.
Methodology
Current research represents the comparative
analysis of procedure 4200 (indirect import) and
direct import. 4200 is a mechanism used by the
EU importer to obtain VAT exemptions. Applies
when goods imported from outside the EU to one
Member State are transported to another. In such
cases, VAT shall be paid in the last Member State
of destination. Based on the analysis of the
competitiveness of Ukrainian goods, it is proved
that the enterprises of the EU countries have
more opportunities for development, since using
indirect imports, VAT can be paid later the sale,
which contributes to the development of the EU
economy, and the resale of goods with a lower
percentage of margins. Ukraine cannot offer
Ukrainian companies such benefits as VAT
deferrals. Ukraine's customs legislation cannot
provide simplification for international trade and
therefore does not meet the goals of sustainable
development and ability for the fast recovery.
The main goal of the study was to identify the
main problems facing Ukrainian business and
identify points that will help businesses respond
quickly to change, one of which is war.
After research, the deposit was chosen as an
opportunity to improve the customs mechanism
of Ukraine. In 2022, surveys were conducted,
which helped to understand how important this
tool is for Ukrainian business and can help the
economy recover quickly. The tool was designed
to quickly restore the economy and fulfill the
sustainable development plan.
The surveys were conducted to identify the need
for a business instrument, as well as to identify
the amount that a business is willing to pay for
such an instrument, since the interest on loans
that can be taken to pay VAT is high and ranges
from 10.9% to 53.4% according to the National
Bank of Ukraine. Survey was made to evaluate
the import component in production and
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understood how the business reacts to the
instrument for deferring VAT payment.
Profile of Survey:
• 76 respondents are companies in Ukraine,
that provides export
• 29 companies have import part in their
export
• 13 of companies has import part from 75%-
100% in raw materials
• 72 respondents from 76 are big size
companies
Both surveys included both open and closed
questions. First survey includes:
• Business size (small / medium / large)
• Do you carry out which foreign economic
activity? (Only Import/Only Export/
Export+Import)
• Do you have an import component in the
exported products? (Yes/No)
• Import raw materials component in the
finished product, % (Select diapasons)
• Volume of imports per year, in UAH (Select
diapasons)
• Choose import, temporary entry, or transit
(import, temporary entry, transit)
• Does the payment of VAT during the
customs clearance in Ukraine affect the final
price of finished goods intended for export?
(Yes/No)
• Does the competitiveness of your export
goods increase if you exempted from paying
VAT before custom clearance? (Yes/No)
• Does the increasing of the competitiveness
of your products improve the well-being of
the company's employees? (Yes/No)
• Do you consider it expedient to amend the
customs legislation of Ukraine to deferral of
payment VAT and other customs taxes?
(Yes/No)
The survey shows the readiness of Ukrainian
enterprises to change in taxation, and a clear
position in terms of willingness to work with
deferred payment of VAT, even for a fee. Some
of the questions in the two studies repeat each
other to interview separately manufacturers who
have an import component, separately exporters
/ importers. This breakdown was made for the
purity of the study.
Results and Discussion
The VAT deferral scheme is precisely the
instrument that originated from the 4200 indirect
imports in the EU, where VAT can be paid after
the sale of the product itself. To identify this
possible tool, a comparative analysis of the
structure of the customs and tariff mechanism of
Ukraine and the EU was conducted, both in the
pre-war and in wartime. In Figure 1, we can see
a comparative analysis of the structure of the EU-
Ukraine customs tariff mechanism in the pre-war
period. According to the Figure 1, VAT, which
constitutes a large share of the cost of goods in
all countries, can be paid on indirect imports,
after the sale of goods already in Poland. Indirect
Import SVK+PL (4200) shows the customs
clearance of goods in Slovakia for Poland, and
the payment of VAT after the sale of goods in
Poland. In this case, payment is deferred for an
indefinite term. With direct import to Poland,
VAT payment occurs within 10 days after
customs clearance of the goods, when using
guarantees. In Ukraine, VAT and duty are paid
immediately, before the goods are cleared
through customs.
Figure 1. Comparative analysis of the structure of the EU-Ukraine customs tariff mechanism in the pre-
war period. Source: own.
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In Figure 2, we can see a comparative analysis of
the structure of the EU-Ukraine customs tariff
mechanism in the war period for small business.
According to Figure 2, we can see that Indirect
Import SVK+PL (4200) and Direct Import PL do
not change and leave the same benefits for
companies in the European Union, and Ukraine
within companies that are on a flat tax of 2%
(small business), may not pay VAT and import
duties.
Tax situation at the end of April 2022 was fixed
only for the period of martial law. In comparison,
we see that taxes for small businesses have been
significantly reduced, mainly to give impetus to
its development. The reason for such taxes is that
small businesses work mainly with individuals,
which makes it possible for individuals to save
money as part of the fight against poverty and
sustainable development.
Figure 2. Comparative analysis of the structure of the EU-Ukraine customs tariff mechanism in the war
period for small business. Source: own.
In Figure 3, we can see a comparative analysis of
the structure of the EU-Ukraine customs tariff
mechanism in the war period for medium and big
business. According to Figure 3, we do not
observe changes for medium and large
businesses with war conditions and with pre-war
import conditions. For big business, the terms of
the customs tariff mechanism for international
trade have not changed.
Figure 3. Comparative analysis of the structure of the EU-Ukraine customs tariff mechanism in the war
period for medium and big business. Source: own.
Restoring business after the war is a rather
pressing issue for both small and medium and
large businesses that are undergoing relocation
and change. Big business also needs support,
especially in terms of reducing production costs,
in terms of raw materials.
It would be especially advantageous for
Ukrainian businesses to be able to pay VAT after
the sale of goods imported into Ukraine, and in
the case of using imported raw materials in
finished Ukrainian products, to allow to pay
VAT at a rate of 0%. This would increase the
competitiveness of Ukrainian products in foreign
markets.
On April 27, 2022, the European Union
abolished all duties and quotas on Ukrainian
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products, as well as the United Kingdom. This
approach benefits Ukrainian businesses in the
European market and the UK market, but the
excessive costs of Ukrainian business are
associated with logistics, loss of raw materials,
disruptions in raw material supply, increased
logistics, and labor emigration to the European
Union. Even before the war, two polls were
conducted, thanks to which we understand what
instruments of the customs and tariff mechanism
should be introduced in Ukraine for a faster
revival of the Ukrainian economy.
To test the possibility of deferred payment, and
the attitude of business to this, a business survey
was conducted, namely 76 companies, the largest
of which was classified as a large business.
Figure 4. Business size of the respondents (small / medium / large). Source: own.
Based on Figure 4, we see that 95% -72
companies, surveyed belong to large businesses,
1 to medium businesses (1%) and 3 to small
businesses (4%).
Based on Figure 5, we see that 58 companies
(76%) are engaged in both exports and imports,
and only 18 of the respondents (24%) are
engaged exclusively in imports, and none of the
respondents are exclusively engaged in exports.
Figure 5. Types of foreign economic activity carried out by respondents. (Only Import/Only Export/
Export+Import). Source: own.**
Of the exporters surveyed, Figure 6, we see that
38% have an import component in their product, and 62% do not have an import component, their
import and export categories do not overlap. The
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indicator of the import component when
exporting is very important for us, since often
Ukrainian companies do not work on a give-and-
take scheme, but purchase imported components,
paying VAT, and then export goods, including
VAT in the cost of goods when calculating, since
not everyone submits VAT in Ukraine for
reimbursement.
Figure 6. Import component in the exported products by respondents. (Only Import/Only Export/
Export+Import). Source: own.
Figure 7 shows us the % of the imported
component (raw materials) in the final product. It
is he who is important for determining the impact
of VAT on the final cost of the product. 6.67% of
the surveyed companies have less than 10% of
the import component, 6.67% of the companies
have an import component of 10-25%, 23.33% of
the surveyed companies have an import
component of 25-50%, 50-75% have an import
component of 20% of the surveyed companies,
and what is especially important 75-100%, and
this is 43.33% of the surveyed companies have
an import component. 75-10% of raw materials
are imported, which is a very high figure for
Ukrainian goods. On average, the indicator of the
import component in Ukraine ranges from 30-
60%, our sample of exporters turned out to be
special. The import component and taxes paid,
namely in Ukraine it is 20% VAT + duty, are a
big burden on the business, and implies the
availability of working capital 20% more than a
European business can have to work at the same
level.
Reducing the burden specifically on the import
component of Ukrainian goods will serve not
only to reduce the cost of Ukrainian goods
abroad but will also serve to reduce the cost of
Ukrainian goods in Ukraine itself, which will
allow people to buy goods more freely at lower
prices.
In April 2022, prices for Ukrainian goods have
increased due to the logistics component, which
needs to be brought back to normal. In
connection with the war, new logistical routes
should be developed, and new optimal solutions
should be given to replace imported components.
One of the solutions is the replacement of
imported components, which is difficult during
the war, since not all production works. Many
imported components are not grown in Ukraine,
and this also has an impact on everything from
fabrics and threads to some food ingredients.
The volume of imports per year is also of great
importance, as shown in Figure 8. This category
considers the volume of imports for which it is
necessary to give a deferred payment for the
payment of VAT until the sale of products on the
domestic market, or export, to use the VAT
offset. Such an opportunity as a deferred
payment will enable Ukrainian enterprises to
work more efficiently with less working capital.
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Figure 7. Import raw materials component in the finished product, %. Source: own.
As we can see from Figure 7 and Figure 8, the
possibility of deferred payment and offsetting on
the import component can have a tangible effect
for companies, given the high% of imported raw
materials used by enterprises. Import amounts
also show opportunities for more efficient
operation with less working capital.
Figure 8. Volume of imports per year, in UAH. Source: own.**
76 survey participants were also asked questions
related to the benefits for their company when
using the VAT deferral. 100% of respondents
confirmed that payment of VAT during the
customs clearance in Ukraine affect the final
price of finished goods intended for export.
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Figure 9. Results of the survey of respondents on key issues. Source: own.
100% of respondents confirmed that deferral of
payment VAT increase the competitiveness of
goods and improve the well-being of the
company's employees. It is also important that
the desire to amend the customs legislation of
Ukraine to deferral of payment VAT and other
customs taxes, like it is works in European Union
at indirect import. Figure 9 shows us the
responses to the questions by the respondents.
Conclusions
Based on the study, we can say that the business
is ready to defer VAT and duties during the
import of goods and sees the benefits of working
within Ukraine under the scheme of indirect
import to the EU, which was considered in the
study. Business attracts the opportunity to pay
VAT and other taxes after the sale of goods. In
war and post-war times, this is necessary for
business to raise the economy and reduce the
necessary working capital to start a business.
This study is based on a comparative analysis of
the customs tariff mechanism of the European
Union and Ukraine in pre-war time and during
martial law. 76 companies were surveyed that are
ready to use the deferred payment tool currently
used by the European Union when importing
goods of non-European origin indirectly into the
country. Ukrainian companies want to use the
deferral of VAT after the sale of goods during
direct imports, which will give a competitive
advantage to Ukrainian business and will have
positive economic result.
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