Volume 10 - Issue 45
/ September 2021
281
http:// www.amazoniainvestiga.info ISSN 2322- 6307
DOI: https://doi.org/10.34069/AI/2021.45.09.28
How to Cite:
Zakharova, L.F. (2021). Science organization of management as a method of production systems’ effectiveness
increasing. Amazonia Investiga, 10(45), 281-292. https://doi.org/10.34069/AI/2021.45.09.28
Science organization of management as a method of production
systems’ effectiveness increasing
Научная организация управления как способ повышения эффективности
производственных систем
Received: March 1, 2021 Accepted: July 30, 2021
Written by:
Lilya F. Zakharova
113
https://www.elibrary.ru/author_profile.asp?id=1067513
https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1834-8227
Abstract
Modern high-tech production must be highly-
effective and competitive, what is possible only
when effective management system is available.
There are disadvantages and problems of
domestic machine-building enterprises and their
practical experience. On the basis of made
research with using fundamental theoretical and
applied developments in the sphere of increasing
management there is suggested conceptual
appearance of a unique prognostic system of
machine-building enterprises not mass
production, the choice of directions of increasing
these enterprises’ operative management system
is justified. The purpose of the article is to
propose ways to improve the efficiency of
manufacturing enterprises. The methodology
used in conducting this study and developing
proposals for increasing the efficiency of
production systems is based on the principles and
methods of the general theory of management, its
cybernetic and social components, as well as
methods of specific management sciences for the
creation and effective functioning of enterprise
management mechanisms.
Keywords: operative planning, predicting,
production system, strategic management.
113
PhD in Economic Sciences, Associate Professor, Moscow Aviation Institute (National Research University), Moscow, Russia.
282
www.amazoniainvestiga.info ISSN 2322- 6307
Introduction
In modern world, which is characterized as a time
without regularities eclectic is becoming
common thing: there is combining of values and
concepts. Objective terms of return to human
values became a threat of humanity living on
Earth, which appears in different spheres and
letting us know about it more and more often.
History teaches that the base of wealth is material
production. Separation from the real base of
existing can turn into the loss of country’s
strategic safety that is why a known tendency of
outputting a number of productions from USA in
terms of outsourcing in developed countries
nowadays changes in diametrically opposite
direction. For domestic enterprises modern stage
of development is neo industrialization. In
macroeconomic scales the solution of the
productionally-technological base of domestic
machine-building modernization task is
potentially provided by all necessary for these
resources, in contrast with the before more
adverse development periods. However, as the
practice shows, domestic production gives up its
positions in comparison to the last period, more
and more stepping back from the developed
countries (Barinov, & Okatiev, 2017; Bratukhin,
2014). Force majeure with coronavirus pandemic
can make this process catastrophic with other
same terms.
Modern production in whole and high-
technological industry in particular has a
specialty, which really makes these objects’
management processes harder: wide
nomenclature, scientifically-technical and
technological intensity, high labor input, long
production cycle of made production creation, its
common changing and constructively-
technological completions and special demands
to the quality (Knyazev, 2016). Enterprises of
domestic machine-building where serial
production type is higher, which in
organizational plan is rather harder in
comparison to mass one, nowadays face the
following problems, which make their
production uncompetitive on the world markets:
not enough attention to scientifically-technical
production preparation, inconsistency to
production-technological base of modern
production demands (old technologies, morally
and physically worn out of equipment) and low
effectiveness of management systems.
The key to further prosperity and development of
domestic production, its final result, is a highly-
technological, scientific and highly-
technological strategically competitive on world
markets production. Making the modern
production objects harder is not only reality, but
also imperative of modern world. In new technics
there are formed the ideas of its best performers,
whose art labour can be estimated only by equal
to them minds. Machine-building digitalization,
implementation of industrial standards
automation Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP),
Material Resource Planning (MRP),
Manufacturing Execution System (MES) (PJSC
NPO Saturn, JSC Russian Helicopters, etc.) are
“steps” towards creating “smart (non-human)”
plants with high degree of production and
managements processes automation (Zagidullin,
2011; Polyanskov et al., 2014; Solomentsev &
Frolov, 2015). For increasing effectiveness there
are the most easy tools of information flows
automation: systems of electrical documents
integration (EDI) and different by scientific
capacity information technologies (Data
Mining), in which on the basis of reported and
forecasted data intellectual analysis there is
generated information for accepting hard
management decisions (Zakharova et al., 2017;
Porter, 2017).
The disadvantages of realized by enterprises
projects of management systems’ automation
are: absence of complete strategic picture and
projects’ systematization, patchwork of their
adoption, conceptually-instrumental
inconsistencies of different program products
among themselves, inconsistency of given results
because of low reliability and doubling of
information providing and high cost. As a result
there is low effectiveness of given to the
digitalization of financial costs (Sadovnikova &
Shmoilova, 2016; Medvedeva, Museridze &
Frolov, 2012).
The main factor of increasing production
systems’ effectiveness is scientific approach to
organization of their management system
(Zakharova & Novikov, 2012; Semenov, 2019).
In this article there is suggested a full production
systems’ management system, based on the
complex forecast of strategic and operatively-
tactical changes, formation on the basis of
forecasts of set plan decisions and operative tasks
for its support (Zakharova & Novikov, 2016;
Zakharova & Novikov, 2016).
Literature Review
Modern literature is replete with works in the
field of improving the efficiency of management
Zakharova, L.F. / Volume 10 - Issue 45: 281-292/ September, 2021
Volume 10 - Issue 45
/ September 2021
283
http:// www.amazoniainvestiga.info ISSN 2322- 6307
and management of production systems of
enterprises. At the same time, on the one hand, it
is possible to single out the authors substantiating
the point of view about the deep crisis of modern
management. For example, Doctor of
Economics, Professor A.V. Busygin (2015) is
puzzled not only by the stagnation of Russian
industry, but also by the lack of achievements in
the field of modern economic theory. He speaks
directly in the publication of the same name
about the crisis of modern management.
The overwhelming majority of other researchers
offer a lot of specific ways to solve scientific and
practical problems in various areas of modern
theory and practice of management, including in
the field of production management, starting
from its fundamental foundations. These include,
for example, Barinov V. A., & Okatiev N. A.
(2017), Bratukhin A. G. (2014), Knyazev E. N.
(2016), Medvedeva G. M., Museridze A. B., &
Frolov E. B. (2012), Polyanskov Yu. V.,
Totorkov A. M., Frolov E. B., Gismerylin A. R.,
Zaykin M. A., & Lototsky A. M. (2014), etc.
The methodology and tools of lean
manufacturing, as well as logistic integrated
management systems based on CALS
technologies and standards for automation of
production process control - MES-systems,
presented in the works of Russian and foreign
authors such as Bratukhin A. G. (2014), Porter
M. (2017), Sadovnikova N. A. and Shmoilova R.
A. (2016), Semenov S. S. (2015), etc. However,
today there is no complete picture of the way out
of the crisis of Russian industries, covering all
aspects of their activities and subordinate single
goal.
The author of this article, having many years of
experience in scientific and practical and
pedagogical activities in the field of
management, came to the conclusions and
proposals presented both in this work and in
other publications, including monographs
(Zakharova & Novikov, 2012; Zakharova &
Novikov, 2016a; Zakharova & Novikov, 2016b;
Zakharova et al., 2017).
Methodology
The theoretical basis of the proposed work is
cybernetics, control theory, theory of complex
systems, forecasting, theory of fuzzy sets and the
main categories are such concepts as forecasting,
strategic, tactical and operational management,
large organizational and economic production
systems, considered in fundamental and applied
works (Zakharova et al., 2017; Medvedeva et al.,
2012; Sadovnikova, & Shmoilova, 2016). The
methods used in writing the work are scientific
tools of the general theory of management and its
functional subsystems: forecasting, production
tactical planning, operational production
management, as well as the empirical method
used in the study of the activities of a number of
the largest enterprises in mechanical engineering.
The prerequisites for writing the work are the
problems identified by the author in the practice
of managing modern manufacturing enterprises,
including aerospace, and the solutions proposed
by the author, presented by him in articles,
monographs, educational and scientific
publications, as well as postgraduate
dissertations written under his leadership.
Results and Discussion
In accordance with Ashby's (1959) cybernetic
law of necessary diversity, the control system
must correspond in its complexity and quality, at
least not be inferior to the complexity of the
controlled object. In other way it is not effective,
because the managed object will not reach the
given goals. Thus, the most actual task is
reorganization of management systems with the
usage of saved in this sphere practical experience
and theoretical knowledge. If we rely on the
theory of modern management, analysis of its
fundamental resources shows that management
science is in crisis situation. Well-known
historical schools of management theory, while
basing on different periods key factors of
success, starting from the meaning of the
management activity on its own and
systematization of management functions,
including mathematical and behavior schools and
achieve continuing in different proposed
conceptions (situational, process management,
concept of global strategy, etc.), which, on the
one hand do not bring new knowledge in this
sphere, but on the other hand do not give clear
answers on practice’s question. Informationally-
methodological domestic enterprises
management base is full of variety, not
systematization and not effectiveness because of:
•
firstly, possible misunderstanding of
management nature;
•
secondly, absence of strategic top-
management, effective high guide, effective
owners of business and government
structures;
•
thirdly, blind copying of western models of
management innovations.
Modern business, while failing under the work of
outer world factors, had to turn to strategic
284
www.amazoniainvestiga.info ISSN 2322- 6307
planning theory, which usage was a successful
experience and had long-century history in the
sphere warfare and government management,
starting with the time of Ancient Greece and
before it. Scenario-strategic planning in terms of
unstable environment replaced long-term
extrapolation planning, having come through
quality changes in contents and technologies, but
staying planning on perspective itself.
Understanding the role of strategic planning,
government structures develop strategic
programs and economic development projects
and its separate spheres. There was accepted the
law “On strategic planning in the Russian
Federation” No.177-FZ. Its role in managing
large-scale scientific business is exceptional in
its importance. However, the narrowness of
planning horizon of strategic planning,
mentioned in the law, does not accord to
temporary parameters of life cycle of not only
national economy, but also its separate
enterprises, and consequently to the concept
“strategic” one. The existing position of domestic
production complex is due to the lack of
scientific organization of production
management and, firstly, really working
mechanism of strategic planning.
The defining and leading category in strategic
management is the concept of goal. Goals for
organizationally-economic systems are not only
specific ending positions and results of their
activity, which are the base for building criteria
of their estimation, but also subjective reflection
of objective reality, showing interests of
enterprise owners, staff and society, which are
the motives and incentives of people’s behavior
in their joint labor activity. In critical periods of
development the most important are goals,
classified by stages of management object’s life
cycle:
•
goals of system’s creation (defining the
necessity in product, system’s projecting and
access to the market);
•
goals of stabilization (providing normal
income of business, image creation, keeping
or small expanding of the owned part of the
market’s share and development of rational
tactical movements, while saving the basic
strategy);
•
goals of system’s development (increasing
the income, quantity and quality indicators’
growth, new products’ production and
access to new markets).
The main common strategic goal of production
system as organizationally-economic system is
mission. The concept of strategy for
organizationally-economic systems,
consequently must come from and base on the
meaning of the concept “mission”. Considering
missionary goal of business, there can be made a
conclusion about its highly-humanistic role, but
its merit is connecting of war terminology
strategic management technology with human,
universal concept “mission”. For conquering
worthy strategic niches in geopolitical sphere it
is necessary to have clear understanding of the
mission and goals of every participant of triad
(Figure 1).
Figure 1. Main participants of strategic cooperation.
This cooperation is impossible without agreeing
and defining subordination of the goals,
including such global ones as missionary
destination. Here missionary destinations of
business and government have subordination
character towards the society mission. The
society in face of public institutes dictates and
realizes universal values and rules. Government
Volume 10 - Issue 45
/ September 2021
285
http:// www.amazoniainvestiga.info ISSN 2322- 6307
sets formal rules for its all members. Business
destination is receiving of additional cost for
providing further development of all triad as a
whole system. The balance of interests is
possible only with availability of realized, but not
formally set missions of every participant.
Scientific systematization of management
activity spheres points out prognosis function as
its starting beginning stage. Dynamic of
scientifically-technological progress, intensity of
competition, unpredictability of consumers
preferences and connected with these factors
high uncertainty and unpredictability of
tomorrow events make prognostic one of the
most demanded spheres of science, but from the
other point increase demands to trustworthiness
and accuracy of the prognosis. The prognosis is
prelude of any plan, and the last controls all
further movements of manager. Domestic school
of prognosis was high: developed by it prognosis
tool was successfully used for solving tasks of
creation scientifically-technical, socially-
economical and other prognoses on the level of
separate spheres and national economy in whole.
However, in terms of directional centralized
management separate enterprises and
communities have never been independent
objects and subjects of prognosis. With a transfer
to the market, the situation has sharply changed
in the necessity in results sphere at first tactical,
and then strategic and operational prediction.
However, even nowadays there is a big
separation between macro prediction and micro
prediction, which is a level of separate
enterprises and units. This connects with the
structure of the prediction apparat on its own, its
place and roles in enterprises’ activity, prediction
tool on all temporary horizons of prediction:
perspective strategic, middle term, short-term
and operational.
In the prediction sphere on domestic enterprises
there can be pointed out the following problems:
•
lack of intrumentional-methodological
prediction providing;
•
imperfection of special necessary
knowledge and experience of creation
scientifically-proved strategic and realistic
operational predictions;
•
imperfection and non-systematization of
informational basis;
•
lack of organizational providing;
•
crudity of terms and default level of
prediction;
•
varieties of existing programmed-
methodological providing, input intensity of
its buying and adaptation (for tactical
predictions).
The work of various authors is devoted to the
problems of forecasting in the activities of an
enterprise in market conditions. However, the
solutions proposed in them, considering in detail
certain areas of the enterprise's activity, do not
give an idea of an integral forecasting system.
The publications in this area, also, as a rule, do
not stipulate the time horizons of forecasting,
without presenting the forecasting activity of the
enterprise as a complex of interrelated forecasts.
For making system prediction activity on
enterprises it is necessary to firstly point out
elements of such system. In our view, the
structural elements of prediction system of the
enterprise must be the following ones (Figure 2):
•
perspective prediction for 10-15 and more
years;
•
middle term prediction for 3-5 years;
•
short-term prediction for a 1 year;
•
operational prediction from a quarter to shift
and hour.
286
www.amazoniainvestiga.info ISSN 2322- 6307
Figure 2. Horizons and key areas of production system prediction decisions.
A problem of particular importance in the
conditions of modern neo-industrialization is the
design of the forecasting system for industrial
enterprises of single and serial production.
The proposed conceptual appearance of the
forecasting system of an industrial enterprise of a
non-mass production type for the main key areas
of forecasting is shown in the Figure 3.
Volume 10 - Issue 45
/ September 2021
287
http:// www.amazoniainvestiga.info ISSN 2322- 6307
Figure 3. Conceptual appearance of the forecasting system of a manufacturing enterprise in key areas of
forecasting.
Methodological hardships of development and
implementation of enterprise’s prediction system
come from the character of the solved problems.
Perspective strategic (unlike long-term
(differences between strategic and long-term
prediction are not only in the horizon of
288
www.amazoniainvestiga.info ISSN 2322- 6307
prediction: both are perspective, i.e. made for a
period of 10-15 or more years, but in used
methods and formation mechanisms)), such as
operational interactive prediction, rely to the
class of weakly-structured, but more often non-
structural tasks are the least formalized part of
the enterprise’s prediction system. This is
connected with high definition of prediction
context, uncertainty of managing object goals,
criteria (for strategic horizon) and ways of
reaching goals, necessary for these resources. In
strategic relation this, first of all, relies to the task
of choosing investment enterprise’s attachments
perspective directions, stating choice of the
competitive breakthrough scientifically-
technical products and scales of its production in
world-wide markets.
On the level of operational prediction there are
the questions of making shift-daily tasks by
worker of parts of production enterprises’ shops.
In terms of strategic prediction the problem is
choice of prediction tool, which would be rather
effective for solving the given tasks on the level
of separate enterprises. Without considering in
this work such tool of strategic prediction, we
only point out that for perspective prediction of
production systems development there is
essential usage of system analysis methods, such
as economically-mathematical and statistical
modeling with the accent on expert heuristic
methods. Matrix models, suggested by western
management, are simplified systematization
strategic information form and can be used for
solving strict tasks circle, such as leading
strategic information to corporative owners in
terms of sprayed property form (American model
for corporative management).
One of the most problematic questions is also the
choice of estimation criteria of the whole
enterprise’s place in perspective. In our point of
view, the main indicators, showing the
perspective place of production enterprise of
high-tech scientific production industries, must
be not profit and profitability of production, but
indicator of strategic competitiveness of made
production per unit of cost. This will allow
avoiding short-term “fast” investments,
profitable in receiving feedback in short-term
perspective, which slow down researches,
developments and production of hard scientific
competitiveness on world-wide production
markets.
In order to realize strategies, it is necessary to
take serious actions on the chosen route, make
tactical and operational management, whose
essence of which is concreting and detailing in
space and time of developed strategies. The cycle
of managing functions in this repeats, but on less
management horizons. The ending detailing of
activities finds embodiment in operational
planning. Operational and tactical movements
are pointless, if there is not given perspective
direction of movement, which are strategies.
The main task of middle cost tactical prediction
for 5 years must be the task of predicting the
selling volumes on each sales market. This task
must be solved step by step:
•
on the first stage there is prediction of
potential capacity of each markets’
segment;
•
on the second stage there is made
comparative competitive analysis and
really possible sales in middle term
perspective are estimated.
On the basis of middle term prediction there is
formed a production enterprise’s program.
The hardest one in prediction system is
operational prediction, together with perspective
one, which specialty consists in high degree of
situation’s non-definition after the variety and
force majeure character of possible confusing
factors, which work with making operational
decisions, and also in the lack of temporary lag
among prediction, making decision and it’s
factual completing. Effective system of
operational production management, its vertical
and horizontal integration with all subsystems of
enterprise’s management in operational reaction
on changes of inner and outer spheres is a key to
successful completing of strategic settings and
success of the enterprise in whole. The base for
increasing machine-building production
operational management are logistic integration
systems of operational management, combining
concepts of system process approach, “saving”
production, Continuous Acquisition and Life
Cycle Support (CALS) technologies Bratukhin,
2014, budgeting, controlling and based on using
of counting technics. This includes “pulling out”
and corporation information systems, based on
foreign production management standards. The
first place on such enterprises is given to the idea
of creating maximally balanced technological
process with high intensity and maximum
flexibility of working powers and equipment.
In terms of implementation of “Smart Factory”
projects on machine-building enterprises in
Russia nowadays there is automation and
robotization of production parts and flexible
production-logistic systems, which include
Volume 10 - Issue 45
/ September 2021
289
http:// www.amazoniainvestiga.info ISSN 2322- 6307
automation of the operational level management
processes. However, on most enterprises of
machine-building complex without automation
there is still formation of shift-daily tasks and
creation of essential for this prediction
information database. Shift-daily planning is an
ending stage of production planning, strictly
connected with production way operational
regulation, which is made in real time on the level
of separate worker and workplace, taking into
consideration forming conditions (possible
breaks of equipment, delays in supplying raw
materials, preparations, semifinished products,
details, completing products, tool and fixtures,
unplanned tasks, not showings of production
workers, etc.). With operational management
system functioning in real time it is necessary to
make a proactive prediction of appearing
possible disagreements and form optimal
planned tasks for executors. As a result of
adaptation hardness and high cost of
programmed products its creation on most
enterprises is not automatized and made by
hands. Available in this sphere programs are
based on using hard mathematical instrument,
which allows maximally clear and adequate
consider the given parameters and their change in
operational production planning. These are
models of optimization, immigration models,
heuristic and models of mathematical statistics.
Wide usage has models of optimization, which
consist of linear and nonlinear programming,
dynamic programming, network planning, etc.
Modern programmed provision allows receiving
variants of shift-daily tasks, maximally close to
optimal one. However, in sharp financial deficit
expensive programmed products for solving
tasks of forming shift- daily tasks, using highly
clear mathematical tool mostly unavailable for
domestic enterprises. In these terms the best
variant, in our view, is using a mathematical tool,
which is based on the unclear logic principal
(logic of unclear output), programmed packet
realization of which will be a compromise
between very expensive intellectual systems of
operational management and existing practice of
forming production plan on the lowest level of
“hand” management, this is especially actual for
unstable production.
The principal of unclear logic is concluded in the
possibility of making decisions in certain range
of truth (Zakharova & Novikov, 2016). In
addition, instead of binary Boolean system of
choice there is used the possibility of choice from
0 to 1. The concept of “unclear variety” replaces
characteristic function with membership
function, which can have any meaning on the
interval [0,1] for x
∈
А. According to this
element xi of variety U cannot belong to А (μ А
= 0), can be element A in small degree (μ А is
close to zero), can more or less belong to А (μ А
is not too close to 0 and to 1), can significantly
be element А (μ А is close to 1) or can be element
А (μ А=1). Variety of meaning of x, on which
there is defined membership function, is called
unclear variety.
Formation of shift-daily tasks is one of the
possible spheres of practical usage of unclear
conclusion logic, because it is connected with
highly non-defined of outer and inter-system
disturbances. While forming shift-daily plan the
sector’s planner cannot just set the degree of
preference of one variant above another, but even
clearly compare alternatives and forms a plan
only with some level of confidence. Lack of
operational prediction of disturbing factors
causes deviations during production, whose
intensity repeatedly increases for units (sections,
workshops) with unstable production, which are
characterized by the absence of strict fixing of
the ciphers of the names of parts for the site, a
sharp change in the volumes of their manufacture
from period to period, the impossibility of
determining in advance a month in advance the
order of their launch and release at each
workplace, which is most typical for the
conditions of one-off production, but also typical
for mass production, which is predominant in
mechanical engineering, especially in high-tech
business. Correction of shift-daily plan is made
for later terms of making before planned
nomenclature positions, which delaying planned
buildings creation, brings chaotic in staff work,
making intensity and conflicts on work places
and in the end brings to disruption of planned
tasks completion terms. In concepts of unclear
logic formation of shift-daily task is a task with
unclear logical derivation, making unclear
conclusions on the basis of unclear conditions
and premises. Fixation of concrete meanings
from the interval [0,1], which estimate degree of
ownership of the plan alternatives, has subjective
character. Building of ownership function is
made using experts estimations and is defined by
experience, intuition and other subjective factors
of the one, who makes a decision.
The staged option for choosing preferred shift-
daily tasks alternatives can be formulated as
follows. Let the following condition be presented
to the set of all alternatives of the shift-daily task,
formed taking into account probable
perturbations:
0,01 < ℰ < 0,15
, (1)
290
www.amazoniainvestiga.info ISSN 2322- 6307
where (
𝓔
) is an unclear variable deviation from
firstly set up (ideal) plan. Unclear variable is
defined by its name, scope and description of
restrictions on possible meanings. On received
unclear majority of possible shift-daily tasks
alternatives, there must be chosen some
acceptable or one variant. While solving
practical tasks, using unclear variety theory the
most used were the easiest private cases of
unclear numbers and intervals, which have
received their name by the view of the
ownership functions, which are linear one:
triangle (for single variant) or trapezoidal (for
range of possible options).
We suppose that for unstable production terms
there are the following restrictions for possible
deviations from ideal, formed on the stage of
calendar planning, shift-daily tasks:
1. alternative of plan with deviations on the
interval:
0 < ℰ < 0,01
are estimated as
ideal, but unlikely ones;
2. deviations on the interval:
0,01 < ℰ <
0,05
are estimated as unideal, but possible
ones;deviations on the interval:
0,05 <
ℰ < 0,10
are estimated as not good enough,
but appropriate ones;
3. deviations on the interval:
0,10 < ℰ <
0,15
are estimated as satisfying;
4. deviation of indicators, which are higher
than
ℰ ≥ 0,15
are estimated as
inappropriate.
Then the function, according to these statements
(in concepts of unclear logic is an ownership
function) will have a trapezoidal view (Figure 4).
Figure 4. Ownership function µ of unclear variable
ℰ
With using ownership function the trustworthy of
statement
µ(𝓔)
regarding to possible shift-daily
tasks alternatives will be formally described by
the following equation (2).
Unacceptable deviations from the performance
indicators of the plan, as well as permissible, but
very insignificant in conditions of unsteady
production, are estimated with zero reliability, all
other values will be acceptable and evaluated in
a single standardized quantitative rating scale.
Volume 10 - Issue 45
/ September 2021
291
http:// www.amazoniainvestiga.info ISSN 2322- 6307
This method, realized in programmed packet
variant, significantly easing shift-daily tasks
formation process, reduces time for its
development, will increase the state degree of
production buildings on the direct performers
level (production workers) will increase the
management production cultural level.
The main differential specialty of this approach
is that it shows real process, allows taking into
consideration the impact of non-strict big number
of hardly realized factors in forming shif-daily
plans, which impact on flowing and the result of
its completing and is comfortable when usage of
hard mathematical models is difficult and costly.
Automated systems of operational management
system, built on the unclear logic principal, are
the most effective for the terms of unstable
production. Practical usage of unclear logic tools
on the one hand will not demand any significant
investments, but on the other hand will increase
the effectiveness of management by:
•
providing the continuity (flow) of the
processes of operational production
management in real time;
•
providing the complexity of operational
management is the integration of
management functions for short-term
forecasting, operational-production
planning, organization of production and
dispatching of production processes;
•
changes in the role of man in the human-
machine system as a result of the
introduction and use of workstations of
masters and planners of production sites.
Technology of applying the method of expert
assessment in the formation of a shift-daily plan
using the theory of fuzzy sets with operational
forecasting requires the creation of an adequate
retrospective information base.
Results and Discussion
The paper substantiates the need to develop a
prognostic system of enterprises based on a
systemic complex forecast, presents its
conceptual and methodological appearance and
possible tools for solving particular problems of
operational management for machine-building
enterprises of single and serial types of
production.
The success of the practical implementation of
the proposed solutions requires the creation of a
single centralized databank for information and
expert support at all horizons and levels of
management. At the same time, the design of an
expert support system should be considered as an
iterative and evolutionary process, since the
database should be continuously replenished and
updated in the course of gaining experience in the
process of its operation.
The presented proposals for improving
production management, based on a
comprehensive forecast, are necessity for the
effective functioning of production systems,
ensuring their strategic competitiveness in world
markets, in particular this applies to high-tech
science-intensive industries of mechanical
engineering, where single and batch types of
production prevail.
Discussions of the proposed solutions were
carried out in scientific circles when publishing
author's works, as well as among practitioners of
Russian aircraft manufacturing enterprises and
corporations. Since the improvement of
enterprise management systems should be
carried out taking into account the specifics of
the conditions of their functioning, the issues of
filling with the specifics of the proposed
components of the forecasting system of
enterprises should be considered and resolved in
the process of developing and implementing
relevant projects and programs for the
development of Russian engineering enterprises.
Conclusions
Based on the above, the following conclusions
can be drawn:
•
Hardness of strategic prediction mechanism
on a separate enterprise level needs a
together participation in its development of
intersectoral and government structures. On
the government level, this activity sphere
develops, gets embodiment in government
target projects and programs, but still has not
become an active tool on microeconomic
level.
•
Nowadays there is no clear understanding of
perspective goals and strategies of
production systems’ development or
temporary frames of enterprise’s strategic
plans development.
•
Innovatively investment activity, including
production enterprises automation questions
has non-system character.
•
Innovations in production sphere are
separated from innovations in management
sphere.
•
There are absent qualified specialists, which
do not accord to modern requirements of
292
www.amazoniainvestiga.info ISSN 2322- 6307
highly-technological hard production
systems’ management.
•
There is not paid needed attention to main
producer: workshops and parts of the main
production, in addition to operational
management system.
Reorganization of the existing production
management systems has to be made on the
following main principals:
•
strict subordination to perspective strategic
development plan of management object of
production system;
•
complex system connection with
restructuration of production technical base
of production system, but not the
replacement of management processes by
production ones;
•
realization of strategic projects of improving
management systems and organizational
reengineering through tactical and
operational events (kaizen).
•
adequacy of organizational support to made
changes.
The improvement of production management is
proposed to begin with the design of the
forecasting system of enterprises, based on
scientific principles and management tools,
taking into account the specifics of the industries
under consideration.
Bibliographic references
Ashby, U. R. (1959). Introduction to cybernetics.
Moscow: Ripol Classic.
Barinov, V. A., & Okatiev, N. A. (2017). Strategy
for restoring the competitiveness of the
domestic rocket and space industry.
Monograph. Moscow: RIOR: INFRA-M.
Bratukhin, A. G. (2014). CALS-technologies in the
life cycle of Russian competitive civil aircraft.
Monograph in 2 books. Moscow: MAI-Print.
Busygin, A. V. (2015). Management crisis. Essays
on modern theory and current practice. 2nd
edition. Moscow: Prospect.
Kanashchenkov, A.I., Novikov, S.V., &
Veas Iniesta, D.S. (2019). Technology
formation of the mission of micro-level
management enterprise in aviation. IOP
Conference Series: Materials Science and
Engineering, Volume 537, Issue 4. Doi:
10.1088/1757-899X/537/4/042040
Knyazev, E. N. (2016). Innovative complexity.
Saint Petersburg: Aletheya.
Kofman, A. (1982). Introduction to the theory of
fuzzy sets. Moscow: Radio and
communications.
Medvedeva, G. M., Museridze, A. B., & Frolov, E.
B. (2012). How to avoid mistakes when
choosing a control system for machine-building
production. Machine park, 8(96), 29-35.
Pinkovetskaia, I., Kryukova, L., Arbeláez, D., &
Rojas-Bahamon, M. (2019). Female
Entrepreneurship: Types of Economic.
Activity. Journal of history culture and art
research, 8(2), 253-265.
DOI:10.7596/taksad.v8i2.2153
Polyanskov, Yu. V., Totorkov, A. M.,
Frolov, E. B., Gismerylin, A. R.,
Zaykin, M. A., & Lototsky, A. M. (2014).
Evaluation of the possibility of applying the
operational management system for production
of the MES class within the framework of
mechanical frame production of an aircraft
building enterprise. Bulletin of MGTU Stankin,
3(30), 83-88.
Porter, M. (2017). Competitive advantage or how to
achieve a high result and ensure its stability.
Moscow: Alpina Publisher.
Sadovnikova, N. A., & Shmoilova, R. A. (2016).
Time Series Analysis and Forecasting.
Moscow: Moscow Financial and Industrial
University “Synergy”.
Sadovsky, V. N. (1974). Foundations of the general
theory of systems: logical and methodological
analysis. Moscow: Science.
Semenov, S. S. (2015). Assessment of the quality
and technical level of complex systems: practice
of applying expert assessments. Moscow:
Lenand.
Solomentsev, Yu. M., & Frolov, E. B. (2015).
Modern methods of increasing the efficiency of
machine-building industries. Engineering
Technology, 8, 54-58.
Zagidullin, R. R. (2011). Management of machine-
building production using MES, APS and ERP
systems. Monograph. Stary Oskol: TNT.
Zakharova, L. F., & Novikov, S. V. (2012).
Strategic changes in large-scale organizational
and economic systems: justification and
implementation. Proceedings of the Moscow
Aviation Institute, 53.
Zakharova, L. F., & Novikov, S. V. (2016a).
Formation of the organizational and executive
poly-structure for the implementation of
science-intensive projects. Models, Systems,
Networks in Economics, Technology, Nature
and Society, 3(43), 52.
Zakharova, L. F., & Novikov, S. V. (2016b).
Management of competitive selection of high-
tech scientific and technical projects.
Monograph. Moscow: MAI Publishing House.
Zakharova, L. F., Kudryavtsev, S. M., & Novikov,
S. V. (2017). The implementation of a
systematic approach to solving the problem of
integration of participants in large-scale
scientific and technical competitive projects.
Bulletin of the Moscow Aviation Institute,
24(1), 180-191.